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An interesting counter example to your thesis is the Bitcoin blockchain itself. No one cares about, nor can anyone predict, future transactions, but everyone cares about old transactions and more importantly, validating those older transactions. It's the history that is important, not the predictive value of that history.
24 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 26 Mar
good point!
one could argue that it’s only certain collections (confirmed transactions) of past data that is transformed into useful insights (who owns all the bitcoin) for making future decisions.
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What matters is whether a company can transform past data into useful insights for customers.
@kr I remain quite interested in this thesis, and I think your point has a lot of merit. Not trying to throw cold water on the observation. That being said....
I have to walk back my observation that, "no one cares about ... future transactions". Bitcoin miners' entire business model depends on anticipating future difficulty increases in order to plan their capital intensive expansion. So it is not the history of transactions that are important for predicting future growth, but the history of hashrate that can indeed be useful for predicting future growth. And it makes for a remarkable graph.
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