World Sea and Air Temperature (how is it going 2024)

4771 sats \ 39 comments \ @quark 1 Apr charts

First 3 months of the year. How is it going? It looks scary to me.

Sea Surface Temperature

I see the global sea temperature is getting stabilized a bit on March, but still at record levels all year. See 2023 (orange line) and current 2024 year (black line). The anomaly is getting larger quicker than expected.

The anomaly chart:

Air Surface Temperature

Meanwhile, in the Air temperature at record levels too and I can see that the anomaly periods are getting longer and larger. We had big anomaly peaks of 1.3ºC in February and March.

source https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

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385 sats \ 7 replies \ @quark OP 1 Apr

Apart from the scientific data, how is it going where you live in temperature terms? Are you noticing 2024 and 2023 being different? For me, it was very noticeable in February, with very warm days. But March was colder than usual.

The polar vortex inverted, and it making weather colder and more unstable. I'm still worried about this summer though. Do you think it will be a hotter summer than 2023? or colder?

Polar vortex is 'spinning backwards' above Arctic after major reversal event https://www.space.com/earth-polar-vortex-spinning-backwards-above-arctic-reversal-event

197 sats \ 2 replies \ @elvismercury 1 Apr

Super screwed up; if childhood me had woke up into this year's winter / Spring he would have been deeply confused.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @0b1CoinObi 1 Apr

Does childhood you remember the weather when you were 2, 3, 4, 5. Most of our recollections are over a relatively recent timespan.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury 1 Apr

For the time when I don't remember, the data tells the story.

42 sats \ 2 replies \ @kr 1 Apr

definitely a warmer winter than usual, we only had one or two days of snowfall all season (usually we get a dozen or so)

217 sats \ 1 reply \ @jasonb 1 Apr

Yup. Same here. When my eight year old was two, we went sledding at least four or five times that winter (which means we had maybe twice as many good snowfalls as that). I didn't get to take my current two year old out sledding at all this winter. :( That was the moment it struck me how truly mild this particular winter was.

62 sats \ 0 replies \ @quark OP 1 Apr

Yeah, same. I didn't see any day snowing this year. I know it snowed on the near mountains, but here it didn't snow at all. I remember big snowing weeks when I was a child.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Apr

Through January, we had a very warm winter, but then February got quite cold and March was still pretty cool.

My expectation is that it will be a cooler summer than 2023. It looks to me like we're regressing towards the mean from a pretty enormous heat anomaly.

318 sats \ 2 replies \ @bief57 2 Apr

I am residing in Lima, Peru. My first winter here was quite cold, a lot of fog and drizzle all day, every day, that was approximately 6 years ago. In 2023 there was no winter here... that explained everything, the summer was exhausting, autumn is supposed to have already begun, The mornings have been cool, but from 9am to 3pm it is quite hot and then again the weather is pleasant. On the other hand, in Venezuela, I was seeing photos on X (Twitter) of the "Salto angel" in practically dry condition. These scenarios are normal in dry seasons where flows drop to a minimum; However, the extreme drought has put the authorities on alert since forest fires are spreading throughout the territory, such as last week where the Henry Pittier National Park on the central coast suffered serious damage.

This is how it's supposed to be:

These are photos taken on the Internet, I have not had the opportunity to meet him in person.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @quark OP 2 Apr

Sad to see the "Salto del Angel" drey. And as a forest person, it breaks my heart each time there is a forest fire. Yes 2023 was a tipping point year. After the el Niño things should improve for next year, but temporarily.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @bief57 2 Apr

It's really a shame, I've seen fires in various places in the news a lot, in Peru, Venezuela, in Chile a month ago there was a pretty bad fire, it lasted for several days, several lives and homes were lost. Here is a video of what happened in Chile in February: https://www.nytimes.com/es/2024/02/04/espanol/chile-incendio.html?smid=url-share

My mother lives in a city in Venezuela that has a lot of hills and in times of drought they burn, the sky of the city turns gray from the smoke.

Then come the torrential rains and floods, but I already think that this is bad management when it comes to building construction in places where there are flows or rivers. Supposedly this year here in Lima the winter will be quite strong, that's what they say in the news.

254 sats \ 0 replies \ @saunter 1 Apr

But Saifadeen said climate change is fiat!!!!

102 sats \ 6 replies \ @0b1CoinObi 1 Apr

Climate change is very very real and has been happening since the dawn of time. Our view is based on a very tiny fraction of that time. The climate is based on the cycles of the sun. We don't help ourselves with deforestation and other environmental atrocities which can affect local climates but judging what the weather was like last year to what it did this year is madness. Does anyone really understand the affects of the sun's cycles, El Nino & El Nina and the moons gravitational influence. The science and data is contrived by government funded bodies and will reflect their climate policies. i.e tax

111 sats \ 5 replies \ @0b1CoinObi 1 Apr

Fun Fact Monday: The sun is about 109 times the diameter of Earth. The Sun weighs about 333,000 times as much as Earth. It is so large that about 1,300,000 planet Earths can fit inside of it.

16 sats \ 4 replies \ @Lux 1 Apr

you really think facts can compete with a scary red colored chart? ;)

101 sats \ 3 replies \ @0b1CoinObi 1 Apr

😂 facts have always been the kryptonite for a scary chart.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @BitcoinIsTheFuture 2 Apr

Facts

15 sats \ 1 reply \ @Lux 1 Apr

the right pic is when brits come back home from vacation with sunburns :)

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0b1CoinObi 1 Apr

😂 They're not too sure what that yellow thing is when they get off that Ryanair flight from Newcastle

21 sats \ 7 replies \ @kepford 1 Apr

Many many times I have heard how difficult it is to determine global temperatures today. But, it is possible and I can see how it is done. Now, I have a question. How is global temperature determined all the way back to pre-modern times. Let's say the 1500s? How about even the 1800s. How reliable is this old data vs what we have today? I understand that temps can be determined by things like tree rings but how accurate is this compared to modern methods?

A common flaw with charts is the data behind them. How much trust do we need to have in the data? What is the margin of error? If the old methods are equal in reliability why are we using new methods today. Seems impossible to me that the older data is as reliable.

These are questions I rarely see let alone responses. I'm not trying to pick any fights. I'm curious.

168 sats \ 5 replies \ @quark OP 1 Apr

In the charts I posted, the data is just all modern data so it is all as precise it can be, but even then they describe how they analyze the data and the strengths and limitations they have, at the bottom in the Page Overview & Data Sources https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/sst-data-noaa-high-resolution-025x025-blended-analysis-daily-sst-and-ice-oisstv2

Scientists are very careful with the data as it is their main job, otherwise it would not make sense doing any of it. They collect as much as possible and then by statistics it generates an average final good data.

For me, it is frustrating when serious work for decades is ignored and ridiculed by some people that believe in conspiracy theories. I'm not saying you are one of them. I don't know you. You are asking questions and asking is good.

One way to determine the temperature many years ago I see they use the composition inside air bubbles that exists in the ice that has not been touched since then. It is generally considered to be one of the most accurate and reliable method. The Tree rings, can indicate warmer or colder years but I don't know how accurate it is. It all sums up I guess.

142 sats \ 4 replies \ @kepford 1 Apr

Thanks @quark for your thoughtful response. When I see numbers from even the 40s I'm skeptical of the accuracy compared to today. I'm not saying that means everything is great and we can continue with no concerns. Just something I think about when I hear extreme predictions.

What makes me skeptical isn't scientists. Its incentives and blind spots. I don't claim to have answers to why climate is what it is or what to do about it. It bothers me that so many are so certain about things though. This goes for both sides. I think its just a human reaction to go from one extreme to another. One thing I do know. The answer to the problem of man's abuse of our planet is not more state control over everyone's lives. Science is largely funded by the state and the state tends to see every problem as a reason for more money and more control. These are not conspiracy theories. These are observations anyone could make. Now, you can come up with many theories based on these observations just as one can come up with theories about the future based on science.

I don't pretend to know if the planet is warming up dangerously fast or what is causing it if it is happening. I suspect it is warming. I'm not convinced it is mostly caused by human activity. I'm also not sure we can do anything about it even if it is. But, I do think humans create many outcomes that could be improved and there are many solvable problems that seem largely ignored. Anyway, I've learned a lot in the last few years about permaculture and how humans can built resilient systems that improve the environments and the lives of those that live there. To me, there are a lot of positive outcomes that can be created by communities and farmers learning about permaculture and putting it into practice.

Again, thank you for your respectful and thoughtful response.

75 sats \ 2 replies \ @quark OP 1 Apr

thank you too :)

The answer to the problem of man's abuse of our planet is not more state control over everyone's lives. Agree. And I think we are not going in the right direction with this. I don't like that climate crisis is being used for everything now like for example as an excuse to remove privacy and freedom. drives me nuts.

I'm skeptical too in many fields. I like proofs. The nice thing about the science method is that everyone can replicate the experiment and check the data. Like the bitcoin way: Do not trust, verify. Everyone, from other governments, or independent human, could go and start collecting temperature data. In fact, I've just remembered a guy in Spain, that has been collecting independent temperature of the sea as a hobby for many years and now he is convinced about global warming and the data agrees with the general scientific consensus. so great. this is an article I've been able to find, it is in spanish but you can translate it https://www.lavanguardia.com/natural/20140303/54401950762/josep-pascual-temperaturas-agua-mar-estartit.html

what worries me is that there are many scientists that say it is already too late to react, but I still think technology can save us. Some technology to capture CO2 at large scale that has not been invented yet, or new cheap energy sources, or fusion, who knows, something should save us in the future. I want to have hope.

I'm interested in permaculture too. It is a great and lucky way to live. And I think Bitcoin is very related to permaculture too ;)

6 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 1 Apr

Yes, the systematic approach in permaculture is what really got me and it has many things in common with technology and finding patterns.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @joda 2 Apr

"technology" to save us is like "government" to save us-- It might, or geoengineering could cause cataclysmic unforeseen and unintended consequences. Still might be worth the risk, but I trust the scientists, not the governments who will ultimately decide.

But at this point I'm kinda like "fuck it, let's roll the dice"

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury 2 Apr

What makes me skeptical isn't scientists. Its incentives and blind spots.

I agree, and have a meta-theory for things like this: I like to know what people, and what which people, would really like to believe, because believing something else would induce terrible dissonance.

There are so many things! Nearly infinite of them, but some of the historical examples are my favorite, because people can generally agree on how ludicrous those things were now.

Like when European colonial powers agreed that black people were beasts, and that enslaving them was a moral good, and biblically sanctioned. This was a very convenient thing to believe for obvious reasons; and there would be huge economic advantages to believing it, or (later) costs to not believing it. (Anything about the scramble for Africa makes good background reading. I can particularly recommend this book.)
The lack of harms around cigarette smoking was another good one. Not sure if anyone takes the other side of that anymore.

Anyway, just like measuring tree rings, the cui bono test is one source among many, but it's one of the strongest ones, and most reliable. Or Upton Sinclair's version:

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury 2 Apr

common flaw with charts is the data behind them. How much trust do we need to have in the data?

Everything is only as good as the data. It's hard to make a blanket statement, but a lot of this is really good, at least on a relatively coarse timescale over the last hundred years and change -- regular recordings from weather stations or the heartbeat of other institutional processes.

Longer timescales you get things like growth rings in trees, oxidation of different metals, and the artifacts of other physical processes. The difficulty there is other sources of variance, I believe, but taken in concert with other things, it's compelling data.

21 sats \ 2 replies \ @kr 1 Apr

wow, that’s wild!

i heard speculation that the warm sea temperatures led to the poor cocoa harvest this year, causing the 5x jump in prices we’ve seen recently.

i wonder what other unexpected events might result from the warmer sea temperature…

124 sats \ 0 replies \ @quark OP 1 Apr

yeah. I've read that in west Africa, the cocoa is being affected by a combination of illegal gold mining, climate change, sector mismanagement, and spreading disease.

Indeed, increasing temperature of the sea is very worrying, increased ocean acidification affecting marine life, ice melting increase sea level and more powerful storms, the sea has more energy to feed hurricanes and typhoons, I'm sure I am forgetting something. Everybody is affected by it in the end.

63 sats \ 0 replies \ @gmd 1 Apr

Worried about the coral... last few times I've been snorkeling it's been pretty disappointing.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @oraltosun 1 Apr

Some experts associate the rise in temperatures with activity in the sun.

0 sats \ 7 replies \ @Lux 1 Apr

the only man made climate changing I see is from chemtrails

100 sats \ 6 replies \ @0b1CoinObi 2 Apr

I take it you mean the vapour trails from aircraft flying at high altitude. The hot, humid exhaust from jet engines mixes with the atmosphere, which at high altitude is of much lower vapour pressure and temperature than the exhaust gas. The water vapor contained in the jet exhaust condenses and may freeze, and this mixing process forms a cloud very similar to the one your hot breath makes on a cold day.

The appearance of a vapour trail is all dependant on exterior air humidity. After some time, this humidity is absorbed and contrails disappear. High humidity = Vapour trails

0 sats \ 5 replies \ @Lux 2 Apr

you take it wrong

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @0b1CoinObi 2 Apr

Phew, thanks for putting me right.

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Lux 2 Apr

my pleasure

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @0b1CoinObi 2 Apr

I'm off to the airport with me pitchfork