This is a short clip from a great conversation between Brett Weinstein and Steve Patterson: https://odysee.com/@Undisciplined:a/markets-and-science-are-self-correcting:c
It's been a while since I've watched this, but the gist is that both markets and science converge toward reality over long enough time horizons. For markets that means our allocation of scarce resources becomes increasingly aligned with our preferences and abilities: i.e. efficiency. For science it means that our understanding of empirical reality becomes less false: i.e. truth.
The self correcting part is vitally important, because we want processes to work well regardless of the outside influences and incentives. Both science and markets can be corrupted in the short-term by bad actors, but eventually in both cases a correction comes, as reality exerts itself.
this territory is moderated
But surely there can be many versions of truths, and who is gonna be the judging panel to favour one truth over another? Take for instance the gene editing technology, CRISPR technology, which provides an interesting dimension to the current debates associated with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASS). Theoretically, with the genetic link of ASD, CRISPR has a chance of success and the possibility of eliminating ASD in an individual, and throughout the world. Who’s to say that the truth is to embrace CRISPR? And who is to say that we shouldn’t use CRISPR to play God?
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I don't think what you've framed is a scientific question. The scientific convergence would be: can we figure out how CRISPR works, and the aspects of genetics and whatever else underlie it? Whether and when to use it is another, non-scientific, matter.
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Ah I see! Thanks for correcting my misapplication!
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That's a deep question and it can illustrate what they mean about both markets and science, as well as what they do not mean.
CRISPR is the technological result of scientific investigation into a bunch of different fields: genetics, physics, chemistry, etc. If CRISPR actually works to eliminate these conditions, that means our understanding of empirical reality is closer to the truth than it used to be.
If people choose to pay whatever the market price is for the use of CRISPR to eliminate these conditions, that means their preference for avoiding these conditions is greater than their preference for what they could have otherwise done with the resources exchanged to pay for CRISPR. That was a mouthful, but it's just the idea of opportunity cost. It means putting resources towards producing CRISPR services, instead of whatever else those resources might have gone towards, more effectively meets people's preferences. That's the reality of scarcity and subjective values.
What neither science nor markets are doing is evaluating whether it is morally good to use CRISPR in that way. Morality is not empirically observable and it is only imperfectly reflected in people's subjective values.
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Very nicely explained!
Have you thought of being an economics professor? (Maybe when your girl gets older) You seem to gravitate towards explaining economics stuff in digestible ways
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I have attempted to be an economics professor and will likely make more attempts in the future.
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I feel like Brett Weinstein thinks on Layer 0, haha.
I'm gonna have to take a second to ponder what he's trying to say, because I'm not sure I agree, but I think he's at least circling a very deep truth, and it's a truth that resonates in the bitcoin community because I think we believe something similar is happening with currency.
(Is it even possible to respond to a Weinstein thought without a massive run on sentence? lol)
I think we believe Bitcoin is inevitable because currency darwinistically converges to the best form of available... in the long run.
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60 sats \ 9 replies \ @om 3 Apr
I don't buy it. Both science and markets converge towards reality only in the absense of government's pressure. However governments can apply such pressure over a really long time. Notably, economics have degraded back into Keynesian bullshit right before our eyes.
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"Long run" is a vague enough concept as to be almost unfalsifiable. However, the way we use the concept in economics is that in the long run everything becomes variable. That means government pressure is not fixed in the long run. Once that pressure changes, if not before, the correction will come.
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60 sats \ 7 replies \ @om 3 Apr
To "converge" usually means to arrive somewhere and to stay there. With the definition of "converge" being as loose as here I could just as well say that governments converge to sound money. because sometimes they indeed have to stop debasing.
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Actually, "converge" usually means "to approach". In this loose sense, it means that the expected distance between reality and our approximation of reality lessens over time.
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60 sats \ 5 replies \ @om 3 Apr
Yes, that's what I'm talking about. The sequence 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, ... does not converge. Similarly, the sequence Keynesianism, Austrian Economics, Keynesianism, Austrian Economics, etc. doesn't converge either (counting Monetarism as Austrian here, even though it's not exactly right).
the expected distance between reality and our approximation of reality lessens over time.
Yeah, except it doesn't. Only in areas that the government doesn't care about too much, such as physics and math, can progress towards truth be sustained.
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I think you're viewing this on too short of a time horizon. Economics has progressed as a science even if policy makers are disingenuously using fringe nonsense to justify their programs.
One hundred years ago there was widespread belief in outright central planning. Even Keynesians and MMT'ers don't really believe that anymore.
Two hundred years ago Subjective Value Theory had yet to be developed.
Three hundred years ago comparative advantage had not yet been thought of.
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60 sats \ 3 replies \ @om 3 Apr
Keynesianism is fringe!? I wish. The nonsense is everywhere now. We are the fringe ones.
One and half hundred years ago Bastiat basically nailed it and the belief in central planning is a downgrade from Bastiat's understanding, and one hundred years ago they also had Boem-Bawerk to read, and all to no avail. And Keynesians and MMT'ers might not believe in full central planning now but some want "stakeholder capitalism" which means that the companies should follow goals set by the government but they get to plan how to do so best. Basically communism with extra steps.
When Marco Polo returned to Venice and reported that the khan of the Mongol Empire forbids gold circulation and issues paper money instead, Venetians refused to believe that any people would tolerate such obvious abuse.
Islamic civilisation managed not to debase its golden coins.
Maybe Venetian and Islamic attempts do not yet look like what we'd call science, but communist's critiques of Boem-Bawerk already do look the part - and they're total nonsense.
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Keynesianism is sort of fringe, just not amongst people who go to work for the Fed. Most economists are neoclassical micro people who don't put much stock in modern macro. Even some macro people see the importance of micro-foundations for macro theories.
Think about a damped oscillator. It doesn't always move towards it's final state, but the swings become smaller over time.
None of the Austrian work ever represented the mainstream of the profession.
Truth always comes out on top. As humans, we can do our best to be more "right" but we will never get there. Higher truth is something that can not be spoken. It comes from within. Science and markets are super interesting. But they are not truth. They are human games. Which I love. Its what we do. Observing patterns is what makes us humans I think.
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