The next Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 16, 2024, represents a fundamental event for the entire cryptocurrency. This halving of the mining reward, which occurs every 210,00 blocks (approximately every 4 years) has historically had a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin.
Behavior of Long-Term Holders (LTH)
To better understand the possible implications of the halving, it is essential to analyze the behavior of Long-Term Holders (LTH), i.e. investors who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days.
According to data from Glassnode, an on-chain analytics platform, LTHs are showing strong accumulation of Bitcoin.
Key Indication:
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LTH Supply Shock Ratio: this indicator measures the portion of Bitcoin held by LTHs compared to the total supply. Its current value, equal to 78.7%, is the highest ever recorded since its creation in 2014.
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LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio): this indicator measures whether LTHs are selling at a profit or at a loss. a value above 1 indicates that LTHs are selling at a profit, while a value below 1 indicates that they are selling at a loss. The current value of 1.14 suggests that most LTHs are trading at a profit, strengthening the case for positive sentiment.
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LTH accumulation level: the analysis of the accumulation rate of Bitcoin by LTH highlights a clear growth in recent months.
Accumulation by LTHs is a bullish sign for the price of Bitcoin. These investors, being convinced of the long-term value of Bitcoin, tend not to sell their assets even during periods of volatility.
Bottom line, as Bitcoin approaches its fourth halving, current metrics do not signal imminent corrections, but do suggest a possible distribution phase. Historically, each halving has significantly affected the value of BTC, although correlation IS NOT GUARANTEED. The post-halving trend can offer opportunities for both long-term and short-term investors, with effects emerging over the long term.