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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @nullcount 27 Jul 2022 \ on: LNBIG routed 12.4 BTC yesterday... how does that extrapolate to network volume? bitcoin
Don't trust, verify. Unless it's a LN node telling you their unverifiable routing stats. Then trust and base all your "calculation" from that. Smh
I'm not sure I follow? It's all an "estimate" and "extrapolation" by design.
Perhaps in the future a market will evolve for more detailed stats, but the privacy and "non verifiable" data is a fundamental part of the network design - hence the estimates and calculation.
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Estimates and calculations of network activity are (at best) an exercise in mental masturbation or (at worse) attempted surveillance methods. There's no way to verify how accurate these estimates are. Even if every node on the network went fully "transparent" there's no way to prove their disclosures are accurate. What you're doing is not science, it's reading tea leaves.
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So what metrics would you use to determine if and how Lightning Network is being adopted and is successful?
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Verifiable data points like node count, public channel count, and public capacity.
Anything else used to "build a better model" is not verifiable, so it arguably makes the model worse.
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You could probe for unannounced channels and publish their funding transactions and channel point. That would be a "value add" in terms of estimating true usage of the network.
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