0 sats \ 4 replies \ @nullcount 27 Jul 2022 \ on: LNBIG routed 12.4 BTC yesterday... how does that extrapolate to network volume? bitcoin
My node routed 1 Billion BTC in 12 seconds. Feel free to add that in your calculation. Here's the tweet to prove it: https://twitter.com/count_null/status/1552316644285988865
I'm not sure why you're trolling?
Your comments below questioning the business model of analytics and information services is reasonable - though perhaps in terms I wouldn't use.
However the idea that estimates and calculations aren't generally valuable or the thought that any of this is "surveillance" doesn't hold up. All of this data is available on public blockchains and network graphs. Companies or individuals pulling this information and making estimates is table stakes.
Have you ever tried to push forward a project, new idea, or initiative at work? ...without any data, KPIs, or research to back it up or define success metrics?
How would we ever have price discovery of Bitcoin (or anything for that matter) without disclosure of data?
It is natural to gather as much information as possible when making decisions - that's why companies spend $Billions for data to drive decisions. This data on LN is in its infancy and the "value" of it can certainly be questioned from a profit model perspective.
However it is the architecture and incentives of Bitcoin and Lightning are what lend it the immutability and decentralization properties that make it so important. Estimates on publicly available data aren't "surveillance".
And if we want to see the network grow to a hyperbitcoinization type of space, more transparency is ultimately better for markets (https://timevalueofbtc.medium.com/the-lightning-network-reference-rate-98e41a9dadfa)
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How do you know LNBIG isn't trolling. Why do you trust them and not me? What if I said I've established dozens of nodes with interconnected channels and zero routing fees. Then I set a script to automatically send the entire channel balance back and forth across my node. This is how I'm able to route 1 Billion BTC so fast. Do my nodes not count in your model?
I'm not giving credit to surveillance methods. They are also reading tea leaves.
Nothing wrong with making assumptions when building models. Just question your assumptions and realize how large your margin of error actually is.
If I claim there are hundreds of transactions per second but my margin of error could be in the hundreds of millions, how valuable is that claim?
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There are flaws with any estimates...
I could spin up hundreds of nodes on the network - does that deterministically improve its usability? (no guarantees there)
I could open hundreds of channels to other nodes - but if they aren't being used then its like a highway to nowhere...not necessarily valuable
I could loads hundreds of BTC onto my node to add capacity - but unless its being deployed efficiently it is again of no use to the network
And yes I could spin up a few nodes and route payments back and forth all day to myself, boosting my volume numbers, but again doing nothing in real value for the network.
All of these numbers, and especially any non verifiable data must be looked at with a large grain of salt, and combined with other data to make any sort of useful extrapolations as to how valuable or successful growth has been.
This whole post is just one estimate - and I appreciate that yes this model could be wildly off and the data and its interpretation inconclusive of anything valuable.
But does that mean no one should ever do any analysis - or that this is "surveillance"? At some point it becomes hard to make a business case for running a node, opening a channel, deploying capital, or setting up all of the infrastructure and operations for a business to support lightning without having some semblance of why they are doing it
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Whether "analysis" qualifies as "surveillance" depends on how the data is used.
Anyone is free read the veins of a tea leaf and make any claim they wish based on their findings.
And everyone else is free to build their business case based on their claim. Including the surveillance companies.
LNBIG has dozens of nodes too. So we're not that different ;)
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