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1086 sats \ 18 replies \ @grayruby 16 Apr freebie \ on: CJ Wilson / @Str8edgeracer AMA AMA
Hey CJ. Thanks for doing this.
Most people probably want to talk to you about Bitcoin but I have a baseball question for you. What are your thoughts on how analytics has taken over the game? Were you very analytics driven or more old school when you played?
great question. In the last 15 years the game has changed a TON because of the data they can get off the baseball itself- sophisticated radar (trakman etc) has allowed front offices and scouts to get spin rate, launch angle, bat speed, foot speed and various acceleration and deceleration parameters for years...but when I would ask for my own performance data in 2009-2012 I was told "you don't need it, just throw your best stuff to the glove"
I thought that was bullshit and had to use 3rd party data to try and help myself.
One thing I did, which was relatively innovative is I would use the analytics on pitch selection, spin, movement etc and move around the pitching mound, change styles etc to try and obfuscate the data. I figured out if I threw 10-15 pitches a game from different grips, arm angles etc then the opposing scouts would not be able to effectively communicate exactly how much my stuff moved because it would throw off all the averages.
This allowed me to pitch certain games against frequent opponents with a totally sharp advantage- for instance against Oakland- who I threw against really frequently. I completely ditched my changeup and cutter against them one game and instead threw 20 split fingered pitches which move totally differently. it screwed them up for 3-4 innings and gave me a huge tactical advantage.
too many players are just throwers and don't understand that nuance. I was NOT as talented as Scherzer or Greinke but this was the type of thing all of the 'nerd' pitchers can do to give themselves an edge. Not everyone throws hard enough to ride 4 seamers at the letters and punch people out.
My goal was to lead the league in called strike 3's...zero chance they can hit a homer if they're confused and taking pitches!
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That's fascinating.
I'm a data analyst and what you're describing is such a smart approach to defending against being the subject of analysis.
These analytic techniques really stretch the available data to its limits, so increasing the noise is extremely disruptive.
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exactly.
I threw the following pitches, and variants:
4 seam / carry
4 seam / cut
2 seam sink
2 seam sideways run
2 seam sail
4 seam changeup
2 seam changeup
split finger
cutter
slider
curveball
spike curveball
sidearm 4 seam carry
sidearm 2 seam sink/run
sidearm slider
I was the first person I know of to actively increase the 'noise' and try to deceive the scouts in this manner. I even threw a few knuckleballs as a starter just to confuse hitters if I was totally in the zone.
I was very analytical but it pushed me to be 'creative' as opposed to robotic.
I would do things like Nestor Cortes and Cueto with the leg kicks etc and my coaches would LOSE THEIR SHIT- especially when I would drop down for different angles.
But I can 100% say with confidence that dropping down and throwing 93-95mph was one of the wackiest things I could show a lefthanded hitter and contributed to my extreme success against some lefties over the years.
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That's great.
The other brilliant element of this strategy is that you weren't just increasing the noise. Because you were doing something systematic, you were also biasing any results that could be estimated.
Are most athletes trying to do stuff like this now? We're so deep into the analytics age, I imagine a lot of thought and energy goes into countering it.
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I don't think guys have that much self awareness right now, they're just focused on 'how sharp' they can make their pitches...which is fine for power pitchers and relievers.
But conceptually if you look at my ERA and my HR/9 stats they were way way lower than I should have been as a Texas Ranger, in that crazy stadium.
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I enjoyed pitching in Seattle and Yankee Stadium, and had pretty good success in both places. I really disliked pitching in Detroit, KC and Oakland. Pitching in SF seemed like it was WAY easier to keep the scoring down vs somewhere like Boston- so as you move around you start to understand how ERA+ and FIP make winners and losers more value averaged across the league.
I got to pitch against Halladay in Philly, and batted against him. It was truly a high water mark of my career.
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Halladay a legend!
Fantastic insight! I remember when spin first seemed to burst on the scene with Ryan Pressly being the example I can think of. He was solid on the Twins but it seemed like the Astros really were able to leverage the spin rate and make him even better! I feel that was a Jeff Luhnow move with his NASA background
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At one of the winter meetings for the players union, I went to dinner with Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer. Max and I were convincing GC to stop throwing sinkers and forcing contact and instead telling him to try and strike people out with bigger velocity differences and 4 seam spinning stuff. He was like 'guys I don't think that would work' and Max and I were laughing at him going DUDE NOBODY WANTS 99 CHEST HIGH JUST TRY IT.
I had come off a year where I had struck out 200 guys and remember saying - dude there is no universe that exists in which I should have more strikeouts than you!
GC got traded to the astros a few years later and ended up getting into the spin rate/ carry thing and has been at another level since.
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I truly dont know what it is with our farm system because it hasn't been ranked great in years now but somehow we keep producing solid players like McCormick and Meyers. Even Yander Diaz one of my favorite young guys to watch right now was never ranked by the scouts that high.
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