Stacks will launch its Bitcoin-pegged asset SBTC (https://sbtc.tech) at halving (<55 blocks from the moment of writing). Finally, a decentralized BTC peg for something that calls itself a Bitcoin L2.

But!

SBTC may not exceed 60% of stacked STX otherwise the stakers might throw away their STX and run with the Bitcoin. Let's assume that this doesn't actually happen. There's still a problem: STX has an issuance cap so the entire security budget has to come from fees at some point.

Let M be the STX market cap and S be the ratio of staked STX. I don't know what S is, let's assume about 20%. Without SBTC the freely circulating, fee-generating capital is (1 - S)M which is about 0.8M. The new SBTC capital may not exceed 0.6SM, therefore with SBTC the total freely circulating capital will be (1-0.4S)M which is about 0.92M. So the fee-generating capital increases by 15%... cool but STX is dead anyway once its coin supply dries out, there's no incentive for the stakers if the fees are low.

The fundamental shitcoin incentive mechanism (stake SHIT to earn more SHIT) is economically unsound and requires additional incentives. In this case, SBTC fails to provide one because of how it's capped.