How much of a potential issue is fractional reserve banking on Bitcoin? Are there any serious implications?
Will most new users over the next 10-20 years keep their bitcoin on an exchange, allowing borrowing and lending of the bitcoin behind the scenes, or will there be a sudden mass movement towards self custody of keys? What do you think will happen, and why?
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There will always be bitcoin banks. I'm using one right now ... I have sats that I've earned here on SN held on my account here on SN. While not technically a bank, there's nothing stopping me from using it as one.
Could SN be fractional reserve on account balances? Sure. Would I know? Not until people start claiming withdrawal stops working. And by then, it's too late.
I don't think I've ever had more than $5 or $10 worth of sats on my SN account though. Not because I don't trust the site, .. but because with Lightning I can withdraw with trivial fees, as soon as I have a chunk of sats anywhere that I don't plan to immediately use, I forward them to my main wallet, and periodically I might swap those on-chain to my cold storage wallet.
But signing devices (e.g., ColdCard, Trezor) keep getting better and better (and easier and easier). And who knows if governments do a 6102 on bitcoin held at exchanges / "banks" / custodians / etc. It will just be expected -- self-custody essentially crucially necesary, so that's what we do.
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On a society level? Big issue. Only some of the advantages of a hard money translate into fractional reserve currencies. And there is a high risk that every day people will not bother to understand the technology and just go with a bank.
On a personal level? No issue at all. It does not prohibit you from having your own keys. You still have a permissionless and uncesnsorable hard money with only 12 words in your head.
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It is not an issue. Of course we will get bitcoin banks, giving interest and lending btc to borrowers. Just like a normal bank. These banks might be a bit better than normal banks, in case they open their books (btc-addresses) for inspection.
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