I agree your approach gives a simpler way to calculate, it's your 10% / 50% split I think is way off. Your assumption that a hard money world will work completely differently than a fiat world is a good one, but it could go either direction. Given we know fiat encourages spending, we can assume hard money encourages saving. All things equal, this seems logical, but this is a notion from an inflationary world (even with gold) and hard money could turn everything upside down multiple times.

Regardless my original intent stands, to underestimate the value if bitcoin is adding Uncertainty compared to "HODL Bank" which is on a 1sat=1BigLieMoney trajectory.

When I say more FUD in a bear market is good, I mean it. It's not a slight against you.