79 sats \ 5 replies \ @didiplaywell OP 25 May \ parent \ on: The Paradox of Bitcoin Adoption bitcoin
Thank you for your views. My answer is no secret, but I don't want to "intoxicate" ideas with it (yet), I want to hear them wild and fresh.
I have thought of the same at some instance, but the thing is again that at no point bitcoin stops being conditioned by the adoption process. Since by "full adoption" we understand "massive adoption", and since fiat will not gladly let it by, adoption will come from the people and against fiat. That implies that at no point that "gradually" can transition to a "suddenly" without unbearable volatility for the masses, again limiting bitcoin back to the margins, full adoption being nearly a mathematical impossibility, for it causes its own demise (in this context).
I guess we'll see, but I don't think that's entirely right.
Yes, fiat won't depart peacefully.
However, every new use case creates a new dimension for adoption to proceed along (extensive margin) and each use case continues attracting people (intensive margin).
There's a positive feedback cycle, since network effects apply here, so new adoption makes bitcoin attractive to even more people, which encourages yet more use cases.
I expect that there will eventually be mad dashes out of fiat as each currency collapses.
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I understand the adoption process you describe, but remember that the catch here is that bitcoin also haves a negative feedback that surpasses the positive feedback when it tries to rise above sustainable margins for the masses. It's not lineal feedback but elliptic feedback, hence the paradox.
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Slow process
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Try to materially imagine the actual point of transition. Remember that fiat forces are at play at all times at whim, where the second part of my argument applies. Slow process can make for marginal adoption, but not full adoption.
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Yep, until it isn’t.
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