I agree on all of your points, but like others have said, context matters. Nobody should be storing their life savings in ecash notes - just like nobody should be storing their life savings in paper cash notes - but there's nothing wrong with carrying a small wad of cash for spending money, even if the mint that issued that cash could go under at any moment.

What people aren't realizing here is that while ecash is fundamentally a custodial IOU, it is also incredibly flexible compared to lightning. You're not just trading custody for privacy - it's more nuanced. You can build tools with ecash that are incredibly unwieldy or impossible on Lightning. Think about technologies like Ecash-DLCs for example.

Furthermore, ecash mints are a great moving target. Anyone who can run a lightning node can also run a mint. And yes, regulators could say "ecash mints are banned" in specific countries... But they can't ban ecash mints worldwide, and neither can they prevent determined users from connecting to mints hosted in open-minded countries (or hosted over TOR). It would be an endless game of whack-a-mole.

I personally think ecash mints will proliferate, and there will be two kinds:

As always with a free market, everyone is free to vote with their money and use the solutions which work best for them.