I know. I know. Bitcoin is for everyone.
I know. I know. Bitcoin is for enemies.
I know. I know. Bitcoin is permisionless.
And so on.
Disclaimer: Don't shoot the messenger. This is not an opinion piece but maybe an observation piece and a bit of forecasting of what I expect will happen in the coming years.
With the introduction and demand for US based bitcoin spot etfs, the demand for usage of bitcoin CME futures to play fiat cash and carry trade games, and the adoption of Bitcoin as a treasury reserve for public companies, Wall street and Bitcoin are becoming ever more intertwined.
This relationship is most certainly good for the Bitcoin fiat price over the long term and likely takes the regulatory risk of an outright ban in the US off the table. It is good for "adoption" if your definition of adoption is Bitcoin as an ever growing allocation amongst a larger portfolio of assets.
I am amendable to the idea that Bitcoin could be a trojan horse that slowly takes over the traditional system from the inside. I am also amenable to the idea that the opposite might happen and Bitcoin may ultimately be just another tradfi asset. Either way time will tell.
In the short to medium term (say the next 5-15 years) I expect the divergence between the way Bitcoin is adopted in "emerging" or "volatile" nations and "wealthy" nations to continue to exacerbate.
Adoption Model A:
Emerging and volatile nations are likely to continue to adopt bitcoin as a lifeboat from political instability, war, fiat hyperinflation. I expect more nations will test a version of the El Salvador model, more Bitcoin communities like bitcoin beach etc will pop up, Bitcoin will be used peer to peer, as a medium of exchange as well as a store of value more broadly.
Adoption Model B:
Wealthy nations are likely to continue to adopt Bitcoin as store of value asset that is part of a broader portfolio. I expect we will see much more corporate treasury adoption, bitcoin added to the portfolios of most pension funds, endowments etc and possibly even central banks eventually. A robust tradfi options market will develop, big banks will be permitted to custody Bitcoin and it will begin to be utilized as one of the primary collateral assets by wall street and retail alike. You will borrow against your Bitcoin and be happy.
I have to add a not so small caveat to adoption model B. This is dependent on the fiat can being able to be continually kicked down the road. If something really breaks in the bond market or with the US dollar then all bets are off and Bitcoin as a lifeboat likely kicks in.
Ultimately, I think the diverging adoption models are both bullish for Bitcoin and I am hopeful that eventually the participants in adoption model B dig in and learn about what they own. However, I am somewhat concerned that in adoption model B the people who need Bitcoin the most will be on the outside looking in as wall street, corporations, institutions and high net worth individuals gobble it all up for themselves. While good for the wealth of early adopters it would be unfortunate if current generation and coming generations of people who need Bitcoin the most end up with CBDCs, memecoins and shares of the next gamestop instead. So, let's not stop educating the next generation of bitcoiners- we have souls to save!
Thanks for reading.
Sats for all,
GR