Is it a natural real estate crisis, is the Communist Party allowing the completely overstretched real estate market to shrink and prices to come down? Is it possibly to make housing cheaper for the population, some of whom are dissatisfied?
These questions are difficult to answer if you look at the lack of transparency in Chinese data and the communication policy of the political leadership there. The fact is that the largest single market in the global economy, the Chinese real estate market, is experiencing a significant drop in prices after having been used as an artificial economic buffer for decades, with the state creating artificial demand and building up overcapacity in the Keynesian tradition. We are all familiar with the images of ghost towns for millions of non-existent inhabitants. In its crisis, this market is now contributing to China exporting a good part of its deflation to the world.
Considering China still has internal migration restrictions, I don't know if it's possible for prices to find their natural floor, because people aren't allowed to freely relocate to the most affordable regions.
Have you ever seen these Ghost Cities in person? I don't see how they could find a market clearing price. Some of them are in the middle of nowhere, so what are people going to do? Many of them don't have nearly the infrastructure to support their full housing capacity. Plus, by Chinese standards, a lot of that construction is already getting pretty old.
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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 19 Jun
Didn't the Chinese government announce two or three weeks ago that it would finance the next big round of subsidies for the real estate market? I don't think they are much smarter than we are and will simply apply the old Keynesian recipes.
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I didn't hear that announcement, but it doesn't surprise me at all.
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I’ve seen videos of some of the apartment buildings being pulled down. A lot of them appear to have defective build quality. What a crazy economy!! On the flip side isn’t the real estate market globally due a correction at some point? I’ve seen a lot of housings estates built where I live and again the build quality is not good in some of them. For example Persimmon homes have been doing shoddy builds.
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what you saw may have been parts of the ghost site that the Chinese built in the wake of the great financial market crisis of 2008/2009 to stimulate the economy. and that is now starting all over again. in addition, there is the effect of the collapse in demographics. this is a phenomenon that we will also see in the West, real estate markets that are going into a secular downward trend.
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local governments have been struggling to cover the rising debt of their financing vehicles for infrastructure projects. An additional easing of credit by the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, is widely seen as inadequate to stimulate housing demand
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central planners keep taking Ls 🤣🤣
They keep doing this thing where ghey overshoot capacity and then ripoff everyone involved when they realized they went to far
It happened to their school tutoring industry. It's happening now with housing. In 5 years it will be the same story with EVs 😂
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this is what I always say: communism is a brain disease. these creatures have a negatively sloped learning curve.
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What China is showing is the future of real estate worldwide . Real estate prices are going to crash severely worldwide in the coming years
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exactly. that will be the beginning of the big deflationary shocks that will revaluate all asset prices.
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All of those ghost cities and unfinished buildings are starting to move their data. Finally, they propped them up for so long. But the gig was up when evergreen went bankrupt.
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It is a net good for things to get set back to reality. We need this same thing to happen here in the U.S. The property developers are feeling the burn, butin the end - you can't just keep propping things up indefinitely. I hope this is a lesson at least for the residential market in certain parts of the U.S.
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China exports deflation Downward pressure on CPI Interest rates can drop Gargantuan debt loads are sustainable
The game goes on!
Best to watch from the sidelines with hard assets.
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absolutely. and then there is still the very high demand for US government bonds, especially in the eurozone. the eurozone has to defend the interest rate spread against German government bonds and buy bonds on a massive scale. in other words, it is still on the beat
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