Absolutely: difficulty, tx fees, block weight, public Lightning network channel capacity are all super important economic indicators for the Bitcoin network. We plan on creating betting markets around all of them to enable hedging of core risk by any Bitcoin businesses (mostly miners to start). We're starting out with mining pools/block reward just because it's the easiest/most obvious, but we see plenty of very interesting prediction markets that can be created alongside this one!

HYPERBITCOINZATION

Just sent out payouts to both lightning addresses! Let me know if I found the right one or not. 

Is one of these your bet? I think it might be because it's not a standard lightning address format. Rewards have been tested for standardized lightning addresses, but it looks like the backend is bugging with regards to a general LNURL format. 

Generally the rewards have a delay of approx 5-10 minutes to ensure there are no chain splits before we send a payout, but it looks like in this case it's our backend not accounting for all LNURL formats. 

I can send you this payout manually and get this sorted out on the backend! Let me know what lightning address is yours!

![](https://m.stacker.news/36538)

@HYPERBITCOINZATION Tried it out with a tiny amount of sats (21). I put no for AntPool on block 849103 and didn't get a payout. I think it was 5% for the reward? Curious if payouts are aggregated and end of day? Maybe I did something wrong...

SatsMate

BitcoinPredictionMarket

Miners Mostly Lose — Bitcoin Prediction Market for Miner Insurance and ROI

This is super cool! Brings the betting side out in me. I wonder if there are prediction markets for other areas of Bitcoin (such as price action, base layer sats/vb or L2 volume). Some speculators will definitely move to this area. 

In the end though, I think it is good to work towards diversifying these pools even more. We don't want censorship, and the incentive structure has centralized these pools. Let's keep brainstorming and working towards more distribution. Cheers! 