210 sats \ 9 replies \ @SatsMate 22 Jun \ on: Miners Mostly Lose — Bitcoin Prediction Market for Miner Insurance and ROI BitcoinPredictionMarket
This is super cool! Brings the betting side out in me. I wonder if there are prediction markets for other areas of Bitcoin (such as price action, base layer sats/vb or L2 volume). Some speculators will definitely move to this area.
In the end though, I think it is good to work towards diversifying these pools even more. We don't want censorship, and the incentive structure has centralized these pools. Let's keep brainstorming and working towards more distribution. Cheers!
Absolutely: difficulty, tx fees, block weight, public Lightning network channel capacity are all super important economic indicators for the Bitcoin network. We plan on creating betting markets around all of them to enable hedging of core risk by any Bitcoin businesses (mostly miners to start). We're starting out with mining pools/block reward just because it's the easiest/most obvious, but we see plenty of very interesting prediction markets that can be created alongside this one!
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@HYPERBITCOINZATION Tried it out with a tiny amount of sats (21). I put no for AntPool on block 849103 and didn't get a payout. I think it was 5% for the reward? Curious if payouts are aggregated and end of day? Maybe I did something wrong...
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Is one of these your bet? I think it might be because it's not a standard lightning address format. Rewards have been tested for standardized lightning addresses, but it looks like the backend is bugging with regards to a general LNURL format.
Generally the rewards have a delay of approx 5-10 minutes to ensure there are no chain splits before we send a payout, but it looks like in this case it's our backend not accounting for all LNURL formats.
I can send you this payout manually and get this sorted out on the backend! Let me know what lightning address is yours!
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Just sent out payouts to both lightning addresses! Let me know if I found the right one or not.
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Yep Received 100 ty ty @HYPERBITCOINZATION. This was mine! Should I keep using this LNURL format or try something else out?
lnurl1dp68gurn8ghj7ctsdyh85etzv4jx2efwd9hj7a3s9aex2ut4v4ehgttnw3shg6tr943ksctjvajhxtmpxuurjcmxxvuz6wf58q6z6drpv5uj6c3jvy6z6epexe3ryd3kxe3kvcnr7y2uzj
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I've just been using alby type Lightning address with format like fragrantshadow540119@getalby.com
I'll talk to my co-founder and we'll try to add support for more general LNURL formats though! We don't want anyone else to get the same issues accidentally in the future.
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Ah we gotta get them to open it up again! What's the point of spreading Lightning to the world if people can't use it?
Regardless you can also use your stacker news Lightning address found on your profile as well! SatsMate@stacker.news can work perfectly well to receive winnings directly to your profile here! That's the amazing thing about lightning addresses—real instant settlement decentralized finance on Bitcoin!
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