China: Industrial Profits Rising, Real Estate Bubble To Be Inflated Again \ stacker news ~econ

China: Industrial Profits Rising, Real Estate Bubble To Be Inflated Again

276 sats \ 14 comments \ @TomK 27 Jun econ

Chinese Industrial Profits Rise Again Amid Ongoing Real Estate Slump Chinese industrial profits saw a modest increase for the second consecutive month in May, rising 0.7% year-on-year, down from April’s 4.0% growth. This slowdown signals continued economic headwinds driven by the persistent real estate downturn, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Beijing Eases Property Buying Rules to Combat Crisis In an effort to mitigate the prolonged real estate crisis, Beijing has lowered mortgage interest rates and down payment requirements for homebuyers. First-time buyers will now need a minimum down payment of 20%, down from 30%, while second-home purchases will require 30% or 35%, depending on location, down from 40% and 50%. Additionally, commercial mortgage rates have been cut by up to 55 basis points.

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53 sats \ 3 replies \ @Coinsreporter 27 Jun

It still remains to be seen how China sells ghost town houses to public.

11 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Jun

they are blowing up entire cities to adjust capacities. then prices can recover and then the whole construction boom can start again. of course, the massive demographic correction in the country stands in the way of this

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @wingalt 27 Jun

Sounds like a very fiat thing to do, a bigger version to dig holes to fill them back up to ensure full employment

11 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Jun

That's their strategy... in the long we're all dead...

42 sats \ 6 replies \ @siggy47 27 Jun

I read something about the Chinese Central Bank undergoing changes? Are you up on this, @TomK?

54 sats \ 5 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Jun

you mean in the political leadership or structurally or in terms of monetary policy? i haven't noticed much except for the change in real estate policy

42 sats \ 4 replies \ @siggy47 27 Jun

I'll see if I can find it.

54 sats \ 3 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Jun

Perfect. Thank You

42 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 27 Jun

Here it is: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/chinas-central-bank-hints-at-major-policy-shift-1b175730?mod=RSSMSN

54 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Jun

I have just found some information on statistics on the liquidity cycle of the Chinese. it is based on a 6-month rhythm, which may be quite interesting

54 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Jun

yes, thank you for the article. with regard to bond trading, i have to say that it has been noticeable for some time that the central bank in China is moving larger volumes here, solely out of the problem of securing liquidity in the banking sector. this is now becoming official, but we have already seen this in the markets. as far as interest rate policy is concerned, this seems to be a reaction to the introduction of SOFR in the USA. in September Libor expires in London and i could imagine that the Chinese are copying the principle of nationalizing the interbanking market from America??

In any case, central banking seems to be focusing on establishing rapid credit facilities and reaction patterns in the face of rising government debt, which react more quickly to liquidity bottlenecks than was the case in the past.

42 sats \ 2 replies \ @cristaiji 27 Jun

How long can the Chinese get away with these kinds of crazy fiat economic policies?

22 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 27 Jun

these systems are more robust than we all think. the Chinese also have the 'advantage' that they can literally hold a gun to their population's head when they want to deflate asset bubbles

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @cristaiji 27 Jun

I was afraid you would say something like that but I basically agree. 👍