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From perplexity
PredictIt imposes several key betting limits on traders:
- The maximum bet on any single contract is $850. This limit applies per contract, so traders can potentially bet more across multiple related contracts[1][2].
- There is a limit of 5,000 traders per market[2].
- These limits are in place to allow PredictIt to operate as a non-profit and comply with U.S. regulations[2].
- While the $850 cap restricts individual bet sizes, traders can still place multiple bets across hundreds of different markets offered by PredictIt[2].
- Some top traders work around these limits by focusing on high-volume trading, reacting quickly to news, and taking advantage of price movements across multiple markets[1].
- The betting limits prevent large organized trading operations from manipulating markets by buying out positions or inflating values[2].
- Despite the limits, some of the most successful traders reportedly earn six-figure incomes through strategic trading across many markets[2].
These betting limits are a key feature of PredictIt's regulatory structure, allowing it to operate legally while still providing opportunities for dedicated traders to profit significantly through skill and strategy.
Sources
[1] Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study) https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3iQryHA4tnAvPZEv/limits-of-current-us-prediction-markets-predictit-case-study
[2] How I Turned $400 into $400000 Trading Political Futures https://luckboxmagazine.com/trends/how-i-turned-400-into-400000-trading-political-futures/
[3] This site bet big on political gambling. Regulators want it shut down. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/24/predictit-gambling-on-politics/
[4] Political gambling has a murky future. Want to bet on it? https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2023/08/07/political-gambling-has-a-murky-future-want-to-bet-on-it-00110036
[5] PredictIt Basics - Predicting Politics https://predictingpolitics.com/predictit-basics/
[6] PredictIt - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt
[7] Make Money Betting on Politics - Arbitrage with Predictit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNSqsPlDyGc
[8] What Betting Markets Do, and Don't, Tell Us About Elections https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-31/what-betting-markets-like-polymarket-predictit-tell-us-about-2024-election
No real money?
What’s the point with fake money? Ego and bragging rights?
PredictIt doesn't use real money so you can't arbitrage.
Generally Manifold and PolyMarket are more accurate.
Also worth looking at Nate Silver - I think his model is in line with Manifold.