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82 sats \ 2 replies \ @gunson 3 Aug \ on: Polymarket vs PredictIt news
PredictIt doesn't use real money so you can't arbitrage.
Generally Manifold and PolyMarket are more accurate.
Also worth looking at Nate Silver - I think his model is in line with Manifold.
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50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug
From perplexity
PredictIt imposes several key betting limits on traders:
  1. The maximum bet on any single contract is $850. This limit applies per contract, so traders can potentially bet more across multiple related contracts[1][2].
  2. There is a limit of 5,000 traders per market[2].
  3. These limits are in place to allow PredictIt to operate as a non-profit and comply with U.S. regulations[2].
  4. While the $850 cap restricts individual bet sizes, traders can still place multiple bets across hundreds of different markets offered by PredictIt[2].
  5. Some top traders work around these limits by focusing on high-volume trading, reacting quickly to news, and taking advantage of price movements across multiple markets[1].
  6. The betting limits prevent large organized trading operations from manipulating markets by buying out positions or inflating values[2].
  7. Despite the limits, some of the most successful traders reportedly earn six-figure incomes through strategic trading across many markets[2].
These betting limits are a key feature of PredictIt's regulatory structure, allowing it to operate legally while still providing opportunities for dedicated traders to profit significantly through skill and strategy.
Sources [1] Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study) https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3iQryHA4tnAvPZEv/limits-of-current-us-prediction-markets-predictit-case-study [2] How I Turned $400 into $400000 Trading Political Futures https://luckboxmagazine.com/trends/how-i-turned-400-into-400000-trading-political-futures/ [3] This site bet big on political gambling. Regulators want it shut down. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/24/predictit-gambling-on-politics/ [4] Political gambling has a murky future. Want to bet on it? https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2023/08/07/political-gambling-has-a-murky-future-want-to-bet-on-it-00110036 [5] PredictIt Basics - Predicting Politics https://predictingpolitics.com/predictit-basics/ [6] PredictIt - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt [7] Make Money Betting on Politics - Arbitrage with Predictit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNSqsPlDyGc [8] What Betting Markets Do, and Don't, Tell Us About Elections https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-31/what-betting-markets-like-polymarket-predictit-tell-us-about-2024-election
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20 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug
No real money?
What’s the point with fake money? Ego and bragging rights?
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