1673 sats \ 48 comments \ @grayruby 2 Aug news

Polymarket and PredictIt are both prediction markets, but they currently have quite a difference in odds for the Presidential election.

https://m.stacker.news/43106 https://m.stacker.news/43107

Any idea why this is Stackers? Polymarket too bullish on Trump because it is crypto based? Or is someone putting their finger on the scale on PredictIt as the part of the “Kamala is totally awesome” gaslighting campaign? Something else?

Sats for all, GR

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171 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek 2 Aug

manifold.markets:

https://m.stacker.news/43112

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 2 Aug

Another data point.

82 sats \ 2 replies \ @gunson 3 Aug

PredictIt doesn't use real money so you can't arbitrage.

Generally Manifold and PolyMarket are more accurate.

Also worth looking at Nate Silver - I think his model is in line with Manifold.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug

From perplexity

PredictIt imposes several key betting limits on traders:

The maximum bet on any single contract is $850. This limit applies per contract, so traders can potentially bet more across multiple related contracts[1][2].
There is a limit of 5,000 traders per market[2].
These limits are in place to allow PredictIt to operate as a non-profit and comply with U.S. regulations[2].
While the $850 cap restricts individual bet sizes, traders can still place multiple bets across hundreds of different markets offered by PredictIt[2].
Some top traders work around these limits by focusing on high-volume trading, reacting quickly to news, and taking advantage of price movements across multiple markets[1].
The betting limits prevent large organized trading operations from manipulating markets by buying out positions or inflating values[2].
Despite the limits, some of the most successful traders reportedly earn six-figure incomes through strategic trading across many markets[2].

These betting limits are a key feature of PredictIt's regulatory structure, allowing it to operate legally while still providing opportunities for dedicated traders to profit significantly through skill and strategy.

Sources [1] Limits of Current US Prediction Markets (PredictIt Case Study) https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c3iQryHA4tnAvPZEv/limits-of-current-us-prediction-markets-predictit-case-study [2] How I Turned $400 into $400000 Trading Political Futures https://luckboxmagazine.com/trends/how-i-turned-400-into-400000-trading-political-futures/ [3] This site bet big on political gambling. Regulators want it shut down. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/24/predictit-gambling-on-politics/ [4] Political gambling has a murky future. Want to bet on it? https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2023/08/07/political-gambling-has-a-murky-future-want-to-bet-on-it-00110036 [5] PredictIt Basics - Predicting Politics https://predictingpolitics.com/predictit-basics/ [6] PredictIt - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt [7] Make Money Betting on Politics - Arbitrage with Predictit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNSqsPlDyGc [8] What Betting Markets Do, and Don't, Tell Us About Elections https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-31/what-betting-markets-like-polymarket-predictit-tell-us-about-2024-election

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug

No real money?

What’s the point with fake money? Ego and bragging rights?

61 sats \ 0 replies \ @Haiku7336 3 Aug

Slightly off topic, but I find the idea of prediction markets quite intriguing.

I hope that we will soon have a bitcoin / nostr based platform.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satoshi__Nakamoto 3 Aug

Trump is domenating

103 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 3 Aug

Here are some real Odds!

https://m.stacker.news/43122

71 sats \ 2 replies \ @Arceris 2 Aug

Does this mean you could buy Kamala Yes and Kamala No on the respective exchanges, putting up $0.91 and realizing $1 at outcome?

41 sats \ 0 replies \ @02d0cdd632 3 Aug

Yes exactly this. Fred Krueger posted this on Twitter this week

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 2 Aug

I don’t know exactly how they work but yes theoretically you should be able to arb them.

41 sats \ 1 reply \ @Signal312 3 Aug

I think your second guess is on the nose - somebody putting their finger on the scale as part of the gaslighting campaign.

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 3 Aug

Love a good conspiracy

41 sats \ 7 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug

Polymarket may have different financial rules, if it's crypto-based. I'm not familiar with it, but I recall that there are a lot of restrictions on using Predictit.

It's easier to imagine Predictit being used as part of a gaslighting campaign.

84 sats \ 5 replies \ @grayruby OP 2 Aug

I guess poly market would be global so maybe it’s just a case that the rest of the world isn’t as privy or susceptible to the gaslighting campaign.

71 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug

It's changing fast, so maybe there's a lag.

I still think it might be due to the restrictions at Predictit. I think you can spam Predictit with lots of max buys, because there's a fairly low cap. That would make it difficult for the authentic bettors on the other side to balance it out, because there aren't as many of them and they individually aren't allowed to wager more.

That's at least how it worked at one point. I haven't checked it out in a while.

40 sats \ 3 replies \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug

No USA betting on polymarket

21 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby OP 3 Aug

Really?

20 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug

But Canada can bet!

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 3 Aug

When there is a lightning prediction market I will go wild.

62 sats \ 0 replies \ @SwearyDoctor 3 Aug

this is it, I think. I remeber when I tried, i could access polymarket without problems, but not predictit.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug

From Brave search ai or Leo:

Decentralization: Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform operating on the Ethereum blockchain with Polygon for scalability, offering lower fees and greater privacy. PredictIt, on the other hand, is a centralized platform regulated by U.S. authorities, imposing limits on trading and market creation. Fees: Polymarket's decentralized nature results in lower transaction costs compared to PredictIt's centralized platform with higher fees. Market Variety: Polymarket offers a broader range of markets, providing more flexibility in trading. PredictIt, while accessible to U.S. residents, has a limited range of markets due to regulatory restrictions. Accessibility: PredictIt is accessible to U.S. residents, while Polymarket is not, due to regulatory restrictions.

Comparison of Odds

Kamala Harris' Appointment: Polymarket predicts an 81% chance of Harris being officially appointed as vice president, while PredictIt forecasts 85%. Trump's Presidential Odds: Polymarket's traders signal a 72% chance of Trump retaking the White House, while PredictIt's odds are not explicitly mentioned in the provided search results.

Scoring and Reliability

Polymarket: Considered more reliable than PredictIt due to PredictIt's high fees and low trading caps, which can reduce price accuracy. Election Betting Odds: An aggregate of real-money prediction markets, including Polymarket and PredictIt, provides a consensus forecast.

In Summary

Polymarket and PredictIt are both prediction market platforms, but they differ significantly in their decentralized vs centralized structure, fees, market variety, and accessibility. Polymarket's decentralized nature and lower fees make it an attractive option for traders seeking greater flexibility and privacy, while PredictIt's centralized platform and regulatory restrictions limit its market offerings and accessibility.

50 sats \ 6 replies \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug

I signed up for Predict It

I can't place a bet until they verify my identity

21 sats \ 5 replies \ @grayruby OP 3 Aug

I had no idea it wasn't real money. I can't take it seriously then. Democrat staffers could have made thousands of accounts to place fake bets on Kamala.

20 sats \ 4 replies \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug

You can't bet more than 850 bucks

Polygon has no limits

21 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby OP 3 Aug

So you can bet real money. There are just limits. Because yesterday someone said it is fake money.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug

Outdated information

I'm still waiting to get verified

50 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 6 Aug

My account has been verified.

I forgot I signed up in 2019.

I have lost every bet except one: Amy Barrett for scotus Won a whopping 93 cents in 2020

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby OP 6 Aug

I noticed the odds changed a bit with the market sell off today.

50 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug

From perplexity

PredictIt is an online prediction market that allows users to place bets on political and financial events[2]. Here are some key points about PredictIt:

It operates as a continuous double auction, where users buy and sell shares related to the predicted outcomes of events[2].
The site groups related predictions into markets covering topics like U.S. elections, the Biden administration, Congress, and world events[2].
PredictIt charges a 10% fee on profits and an additional 5% withdrawal fee to cover operating expenses[2].
It was launched in November 2014 as a project of Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand[2].
The site operates under restrictions to comply with U.S. regulations, including an $850 cap on individual investments per question and a limit of 5,000 traders per market[2].
In August 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) moved to shut down PredictIt, claiming it had violated the terms of its regulatory approval[2][3].
PredictIt filed a lawsuit challenging the CFTC's decision, and as of January 2023, was allowed to continue operating while the court considered the case[2][3].

Sources [1] PredictIt https://www.predictit.org [2] PredictIt - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt [3] This site bet big on political gambling. Regulators want it shut down. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/24/predictit-gambling-on-politics/ [4] What Betting Markets Like Polymarket, PredictIt Tell Us About 2024 ... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-31/what-betting-markets-like-polymarket-predictit-tell-us-about-2024-election [5] PredictIt 2020 Presidential Election Markets - 270toWin https://www.270towin.com/maps/predictit-2020-presidential-election-odds [6] PI https://twitter.com/PredictIt

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug

Polymarket has much higher volume than Predict.

Hence more reliable

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug

Predict It has been way off in the past but also excellent. Hit or miss.

Predict It was wrong about Brexit in 2016 like everyone else.

But they got the GOP primary for governor in AZ: Kari Lake

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 10 Oct

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8075/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 3 Aug

USA bettors vs non USA bettors

Predict is more heavily regulated and has betting limits

20 sats \ 9 replies \ @Satosora 2 Aug

This is messed up. But I bet it is based on how much someone bets. So Trump must be leading in money.

20 sats \ 7 replies \ @grayruby OP 3 Aug

It’s odd that there is such a discrepancy between the two.

20 sats \ 6 replies \ @Satosora 3 Aug

As more people bet on harris, the price difference should become closer.

20 sats \ 5 replies \ @grayruby OP 3 Aug

Yes but what’s odd is they are betting on her on one platform but not the other. They should both have similar odds otherwise you could arbitrage the difference.