Geoengineering is often described as a gutsy last-ditch effort encompassing a suite of ideas and technologies designed to alter some function of the planet’s natural systems with the goal of cooling it. Some interventions are more plausible, others more terrifying.

Weather modification, like seeding clouds with silver iodide to encourage rain, affects only a specific locale and so falls outside the scope of what most experts today consider global geoengineering. Capturing carbon dioxide from the air with giant filters, however, can affect the planet’s atmosphere, and so sits squarely in the realm of geoengineering. But these days, direct-air carbon capture is generally considered less invasive than other methods, like tampering with the ocean’s chemistry to cause its waters to absorb carbon. 

What concerns experts most is solar radiation management technologies, which include bright ideas like spreading reflective material across Arctic sea ice to keep it from melting or releasing chemicals, as Iseman’s bursting balloons are intended to do, like sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight. It’s sexy and highly controversial, and so gets much of the attention.

Green Capital, Same As The Old Capital

When Surprise looked into who was behind solar geoengineering funding today, he didn’t find the fossil fuel industry trying to delay emissions reductions. He found uber-rich, Silicon Valley and Wall St. philanthropists who advertised themselves as wanting to save the world. But if the ends they seek are different from the oil and gas industry, their means are surprisingly similar.

The world has so far responded to climate change with a new green economy: carbon pricing, privatized conservation, renewable energy investment, carbon capture technologies and green consumerism. The idea is that this sustainability minded economic engine, driven by competition for profit, will spur innovation that ripples through society, changing the energy economy and keeping pace with our climate crisis. So far, that hasn’t been the case.

“There’s recognition that the green economy is unlikely to work in the timescales necessary to stave off the worst of the crisis,” Surprise told me. Global gross domestic product could fall by up to 18% by 2050 if climate mitigation isn’t successful enough. According to Moore, seven feet of sea-level rise would cost the world $100 billion a year. 

Solar geoengineering is often framed as a massive humanitarian effort, but “there is no grassroots climate justice movement crying out for these technologies,” he said. Instead, his research shows that funding for solar engineering is comprised of a core group including, “at least 11 billionaires or billionaire-founded philanthropies, and a slew of wealthy individuals with direct ties to venture capital firms and billionaire-led hedge funds.” The largest bloc among them are financial firms in the high-tech sector. Surprise argues that this pool of capital, which depends on continued economic growth, can’t stomach the potential future economic losses forecasted for a warming planet. So, it is investing in solar engineering.

“This is basically a hedge on the bet of the green economy,” he told me. “We can’t move away from the profit motive. We can’t move away from capitalism. We’ve got to double down. We’ve got to use this as the solution.”

From Surprise’s perspective, geoengineering is part of an effort to buy time for gradual, market-driven climate and energy transitions that will keep the economy cooking. And his concerns echo those of others who stand opposed to solar radiation management and the geoengineering field as a whole: While entrepreneurs invest their time and money into speculative technologies, the real climate action of reducing carbon emissions is delayed.