I'm hopeful w/o the ability for administrators to interfere, territories would still be able to preserve and maintain themselves against the unthinking masses.
SN definitely got potential but looking at current trends of growth, I think it can take more time to obsolete Reddit. But, SN will definitely be where Reddit is now. But, how much reddit will be in 5 years, I'm not sure.
1 - The territory-moat problem. Territories need to be profitable independent of 2nd channel income.
2 - The Bitcoiner-population-cap. They need to grow faster than Bitcoin adoption.
...is one I expect - as soon as a territory is almost profitable, it will get a competitor, and another, and another, where we'll have (for instance) ~dogAndCats, ~dogNcats, ~doggoCats, and ~CatsAndDogs. There is no way for a territory to differentiate itself, intrinsically to SN. The only way I can think of to defend against this, is to add more resources to build a 2nd-channel off of SN, to figure out a way to capture the audience. And that will be the demise of SN. They are actually incentivizing off-SN audience-capture. And yet, as a territory owner, I have no plans for anything like that, and I'm still irrationally paying the monthly bill. So perhaps I'm wrong. That's a low-time-preference game to come ahead while your customers don't. You'll get churn, with the exception of irrational people like me. The real way to victory for SN, is to figure out a way for all stakeholders, (SN, Territory Owners, Contributors, Posters, and Commenters) to all come ahead, on average. The average member in each of those cohorts needs to be in the black.
A Solution
Right now, SN has determined a bunch of arbitrary fixed constants. They've done this for subjective reasons in a centrally planned way. That is like setting a price in a market without feedback, and then only selling to the people willing to pay that price. It doesn't maximize total trade, which is what produces the most winners. In order for all stakeholders to win, sustainably, they need to find the optimal parameters, which, confusingly, will fluctuate with time. In free markets, prices float. Everything about a territory needs to be parametrized and controllable by the Territory. SN needs to convert all their fees into a single fixed number, and let territories control the variable numbers. The territories would then experiment to find the equilibriums that balance post-cost, comment-cost, revenue-rake, etc.
Metaphorically, it's similar to states rights.
Corollary
SN shouldn't get a rake in % terms off every post, but they could take say, 20 sats.
Commenting costs should be controllable by the territories, and SN should take a fixed number.
If they don't figure this stuff out soon, they'll have to sell more of the business to sustain development/operations, the site's growth with be slower, and they certainly won't challenge Reddit.
Not before all the users get burned. People dont like to pay for services with money. They prefer to pay with their data. When their data is used against them then they will look elsewhere and hopefully find us
No, I don't think SN will make Reddit obsolete. I do think that SN is a powerful platform, however. I love the mechanics of paying with sats to post quality content and also zap with sats for quality comments. Makes people think twice before commenting or posting something instead of useless drivel.
I don’t see any reason to use Reddit anymore. Most of the channels I follow don’t want to hear the good news about Bitcoin. People go there with their financial problems asking for help and if I mention it or suggest to study it, mods delete my comments.
Here, everyone has bitcoin, there’s no one calling it a Ponzi scheme, or telling me to “stop shilling” even when me and the op are in an engaging conversation. My “upvotes” come with sats instead of useless “karma”.
I want to be around people who think like me when it comes to freedom and sovereign money.
Never, reddit is huge and if they would see SN taking market share they could just copy the model. Also I'd say the average reddit user sees Bitcoin negative or as scam.
Maybe in a better alternating universe.
No I am not. Only that people when they see OP opinion their mind tend to follow.
I create the poll only to test the position of stackers in 2024. Will be a lot of changes this year and the next one in Bitcoinlandia and is interesting to save these opinions for later.
It could! I don't use reddit at all anymore, mainly because of ads and lack of good quality discussions. The biggest question is when will people start coming to Stacker News organically, and what will be the thing that draws them to it?
Would I like it to? Yes. Will it? Just can't see it.
Unfortunately, while the Internet made information (essentially) free and readily accessible, it did the same for discussion. The belief slash expectation is they shouldn't have to pay to share their thoughts, ideas, and opinions.
You've already seen this mentality play out in journalism where most people don't believe they should have to pay for it. Now you see sensationalism to attract eyeballs/clicks, much shorter attention spans, lower quality reporting, and a whole plethora of unintended consequences resulting from the combination of the tech and beliefs.
That said, does SN really even want to replace Reddit? Whereas Reddit prides itself in being the "front page of the Internet" maybe it is better for SN to have the niche of being the "front page of quality discourse?"
The Territory-Moat Problem
A Solution
Corollary