I think you're right, particularly since it seems there is no way in hell the BOJ will try raising rates again anytime soon. In the meantime:

> There’s likely still trillions of leveraged dollars piled into the carry trade, and, as the saying goes, it may take a while for that goat to make its way through the boa.

siggy47

econ

💡The Ticking Yen Time Bomb

Here's something I don't get: some of these analysts are saying the carry trade is 50-75% "unwound" -- which I assume means 50-75% of people who were selling their japanese bonds took them off the market -- but japanese bond rates are still near 0% and usa bond rates are still near 5%. Doesn't that mean the japanese carry trade is just about as profitable as it was before? Wouldn't the folks who stopped selling japanese bonds want to start selling them again immediately, since the japanese government still isn't paying much to bond holders? Isn't "borrow yen, buy anything else" still a good trade by the same metrics that produced the problem? If so, I don't think it will stay "unwound" for long.