I recently wrote a post about
What is the best way to measure Bitcoin adoption? (#645789)
Thought a little about it because this issue is really something I can't get out of my head.
Basically my suspicion is that we have a case here of stated preference vs revealed preference. In a sense that people state a different method than they actually think is true.
This poll is about getting orange pilled. Not about are orange pilled. 1st derivative. That's why negative is an option.
Around all time highs ๐Ÿ“ˆ23.8%
Positive but a medium value11.9%
Positive but a low value40.5%
Around plus minus zero19.0%
Negative ๐Ÿ“‰4.8%
42 votes \ poll ended
131 sats \ 1 reply \ @gmd 23 Aug
If we step outside of our echo chamber, we are pretty far from peak interest seen in 2021. Even when we hit ATH recently youtubers were saying they were only getting a fraction of traffic from back then.
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Agreed follow the data
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My vote is positive but low, in that after 15 years it should, and generally is common knowledge of the existence of Bitcoin - we are not finding large new naive communities that will embrace the orange life. But new people do get interested in economics and start to understand the system a little better, so it is positive. Places like El Salvador are setting education of public officials to be a political objective, which in turn will likely produce more orange pilled.
However, A pill implies the changing of a world view.
A baby today has always existed in a world of Bitcoin. By the time they are a teenager, they very likely will have always used Bitcoin, or their parents. Their parents may hold it in retirement accounts without ever realizing.
Orange Pilled being the norm, thus no radical change of perspective; itโ€™s hard to say itโ€™s a pilled state and not just a state from birth. So eventually, the first derivative will be negative, not because less people are using Bitcoin, but because default state will imply it; the eventual orange pill is non existent - and nonsensical, because why would it be any other way?
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103 sats \ 2 replies \ @ken 23 Aug
Total UTXO count, hash rate, and price are all on the rise. Bitcoin is absolutely growing imo.
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UTXO count is rising because stackers are stacking, not because the stacker set is growing.
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Lol stackers stack. It's what they do.
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I voted for plus minus zero. Very subjective opinion though based on what I see around me. But I live in a bubble which hasnโ€™t changed much recently: people are either in already or donโ€™t give a damn.
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Orange pilling has become much easier recently. Not sure exactly why. But it is happening more than ever before in my own experience.
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ETFs legitimize it to normals.
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People will become more interested when it peaks next year. And they will buy at the peak and sell when it dips, and be angry.
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Do we need continuous all time highs in the exchange rate to attract more people? To me that sounds so pessimistic...
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Bitcoin's volatility is a feature and not a bug. It is like the flame that attracts the moths and then they get burned. However, it doesn't end there. A small percentage of the moths that get burned resurrect and then they realise that Bitcoin price is not important at all. And then they take advantage of the bear market. If not for the cycles, newcomers wouldn't have a chance to stack sats.
Adoption is not going to be linear. It will be contorted with lots of ups and downs.
I think it is positive in number but if Reddit is any gauge: they are low-quality mindsets.
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I know we'd like to have a million people buy $100 each, but I think it's more likely we get ten businesses buying $10 million each...
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We can vote with our instincts but I don't see if there's any proven way of measuring Bitcoin adoption so far.
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As alluded to in the beginning of the post I think there are more or less not really any good tools to measure it at all. So a small poll might be a small indicator in addition to the others
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Iโ€™d say people are becoming more Interested but the price hasnโ€™t sky rocketed enough to have people have that FOMO. Although it will happen again as weโ€™ve seen
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Do we need continuous all time highs in the exchange rate to attract more people? To me that sounds so pessimistic...
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Nah, Iโ€™m just saying that โ€œwhenโ€ (optimism) the price raises to ATHโ€™s, the attraction will be there. For sure weโ€™re going UP!
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People get the price they deserve
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It's both. People who have done the work up front will push the price higher and the price going higher will attract more people.
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I think a lot more people are paying a small amount of attention but it's not thier main focus. Kinda like they see Bitcoin in thier peripheral vision but haven't turned thier head to really look at it.
In other words, I think the orange pill barrier has lowered and the next wave of people being orange pilled well be much larger than the previous.
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People where I live are staying away from BTC because of the Ponzzi. But that is changing thanks to a great effort by the Bitcoin community to educate, and help understand that the most important thing is not the price, but rather what surrounds Bitcoin and its future. That has helped many take the orange pill
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It's sad, but normies won't come around withoug NgU activated
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Everyone I come around contact with in the city and by phone has been getting Orange Pilled. In years past it was once in a while, this year everyone gets it!
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That sounds surprising. Where do you live? Or all the people you come on contact with somehow from a preselected group of people?
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Pretty much all the people I come in contact with are wait staff, cashiers, and more recently farmers market contributors. Iโ€™m in North Carolina.
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as you think, so shall be. for the idea to manifest into reality, it first has to appear in the mind.
that said, i think there is a moderate amount of orange-pilling happening globally, but the anglish-speaking countries are lagging way behind. that is why the memes are the strongest there - they have to be.
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but the anglish-speaking countries are lagging way behind
Why do you think that? Gut feeling or evidence?
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my wish =)
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I get the impression AI has overtaken bitcoin as the technology of disruption in the zeitgeist. Until the average person can use it non-custodially and be their own bank, it's an investment and there isn't going to be much adoption beyond ETFs. As much as bitcoiners want it to be true, ecash doesn't fix this. Ecash fixes the privacy of banks and bank-like services, but it doesn't fix bitcoin self-custody and without self-custody bitcoin is a better gold best suited to the people who need it least.
I'm optimistic this will change, but it'll be long after everyone is done gaslightning themselves about our as-is half-baked revolution.
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Around all time high
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stackers have outlawed this. turn on wild west mode in your /settings to see outlawed content.