There's a saying: Bitcoin is hope.
But once you truly understand Bitcoin, many of the old fiat goals in your life start to lose meaning. It can feel disorienting and even depressing, because you realize you need to build entirely new goals, and you're unsure where to begin.
For example, maybe your plan was to get a mortgage, buy a house, and imagine your kids playing there for the next 20 years while you "happily" pay off a 25-year loan. But when you understand Bitcoin, that plan doesn’t make sense. Why would I put a 100k-200k down payment into a mortgage when it's likely better be in Bitcoin? Plus, you lose about 2.5% to 4% of the total price on taxes, fees, brokers, and other costs. Crazy, right?
I even made a short presentation for my wife, explaining why we should never buy a house given current interest rates and down payment requirements. She responded that she wants a house anyway, because it feels better to own one. But does a 25-year mortgage really make it feel like it’s yours?
She also said it’s depressing to not follow the conventional path. It’s hard to feel satisfied with numbers when everyone around you is deep into mortgages—you want to be one of them. You want to visit their houses and invite them to "yours." It's like becoming sober in a room full of addicts. You know it’s better for you, but the world around you seems so strange that part of you wants to go back, even though you know it hurts. Yet, when you do go back, the joy isn't there anymore. You feel...nothing. And then you decide to withdraw.
I remember paying off my first mortgage for an apartment, and I felt nothing. And that was before I fell down the Bitcoin rabbit hole. Now I know if I ever took out a mortgage again, I’d just feel regret for not keeping the money in Bitcoin. And by the time you finish paying it off, you probably want to sell the property and move somewhere else.
So, the rational decision is to keep everything in Bitcoin and rent instead.Unless, of course, Bitcoin goes to zero.
There are only two outcomes for Bitcoin: it’s either going to infinity, or it's going to zero. There’s no scenario where it just hovers at 100k or 60k for the next 20 years—unless people are foolish enough to give away self-custody. If they do, we'll end up with digital gold. So the reasonable question is - how can you be sure? Well, you can't. But we are betting on it and it works for now. Worst case we will need to start from 0. But then there will be no hope anymore.
We are staying in the infinity camp. And when you are in that camp every time you make a big purchase, you’re shorting Bitcoin. Solution - simple, - don't buy anything. There’s a popular meme: You will own nothing, and you will be happy. But if you’re a Bitcoiner, it's more like: You will own only Bitcoin, and you probably won’t be happy about it. Why would I pay 30k for a car when I can lease one? Why put 100k down on a house when I can rent?
The only justification is mental comfort, peace of mind. Or perhaps you value the illusion of owning a physical thing more than the genuine ownership of something virtual. It’s confusing, isn’t it? Sure, you can own a bicycle. But owning a house? That's tricky. Imagine you’re a Russian citizen with a house on Lake Como, and suddenly, new sanctions mean Italy no longer recognizes your property. Or squatters break in while you’re on vacation, and now you need to go through a court battle to evict them.
Extreme situations, I know. But no one thinks it will happen to them—until it does.
So, you’ve sold everything to buy Bitcoin. You don’t own anything except Bitcoin, and you feel sad. Why?
What can you buy with Bitcoin that’s more valuable? Something that won’t depreciate over time. Something like time.
Time with your kids. Time with your family. Time with yourself.
There’s a concept called FIRE and then there is a Bitcoin FIRE calculation (https://bitcoincompounding.com/). In simple terms, you spend your Bitcoin slowly enough that it grows faster than you can spend it (in fiat terms). Unlike traditional assets, there’s no yield or dividends, so the only way it works is if Bitcoin continues its cycles. And you need to be at least two cycles in to make it work.
But personally, I don’t think there will be cycles anymore. I believe this October-November will break all the models, and Bitcoin will do what Bitcoin does: surprise everyone. I read somewhere a thought that stuck with me—imagine you wake up on a planet Earth on January 1st. You know nothing about the seasons or weather. After six months of only increasing temperatures, you’d be 100% certain it’s only getting hotter from here.
So what hope does Bitcoin offer? Hope that I can spend more time with my family. Hope that I can create something different for them. Hope that I can live without the weight of fiat goals. Hope that it's only getting hotter from here.
I just need to get through the withdrawal phase.