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In economics, we are familiar with the law of diminishing marginal returns. The same principle can also be applied to credit-financed government spending programs. For some time now, we have been experiencing diminishing marginal returns: for every government dollar invested, less new nominal gross domestic product is generated.
Of course, this is due to the significantly distorted allocation of capital, to the displacement of good capital from the private sector to the government sector, which soaks up finance capital like a dry sponge and channels it into unproductive channels. In short, the fiat economies we know suffer from anemia and from the distortion of capital markets and the manipulation of interest rates, which lead to productivity growth approaching zero or soon becoming negative as in the case of Germany.
In the case of the US, we can see that the fiat orgy is now accelerating, which means that desperately higher and higher debts have to be incurred to maintain the illusion of growth in nominal gross domestic product. The private sector is shrinking, the population is getting poorer per capita! There is only one cure for this economic disease: a return to the private formation of capital, stable money as the basis for all transactions and a dismantling of the gigantic state apparatus.
I remember reading a paper that was attempting to measure different country's Keynesian Multiplier. Keynesian theory only calls for government spending when the multiplier is greater than one: i.e. a government spent dollar more than pays for itself in economic growth.
Not only did the paper find most multipliers to be below one, but America's was negative: i.e. each dollar spent by the government actually reduces the size of the economy.
That was an old paper, but I thought it was pretty amusing.
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That's indeed an economist's joke
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for certain the situation implies a need for reassessment of fiscal strategies and possibly a shift towards alternative approaches to achieve economic objectives.
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Debt to GDP is about to skyrocket in a recession. The probability is starting to look pretty high that this will occur.
Both Trump and Kamala we will see increased state spending, with Kamala being much worse on this front. We are all being hollowed out from the inside out. A very scary type of situation indeed.
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Well said. Maybe this is partially the reasoning behind interest rate cuts coming by the fed. Specially, the hopelessness of it all. Bitcoin fixes this.
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The problem with state apparatus is that it is always biased to politicking. They dilute the value of your hard earned cash only to take it all away through inflationary making strategies to appease the layman. Yet it does not appease the masses since everything is being slambanged for the purpose of keeping it attractive enough so the masses will still use it despite the shortcomings of the current monetary system.
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and the example of Argentina is a good illustration of when a society is ready for economic policy reforms: when it is basically already on the brink.
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