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US labor market: Where are we in the cycle?
594 sats \ 3 comments \ @TomK 5 Sep econ
After all the distortions in the labor market data in recent quarters, it is hardly worth going into the labor market data published today. These show relative stability. But as we know, there is a lot bubbling under the surface. It was above all the state that created new jobs with artificial credit demand, while full-time jobs were cut. If we now look at the economic cycle on the labor market, we can see that we are approaching the zone where things are getting dicey.
https://m.stacker.news/49989
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80 sats \ 1 reply \ @0xbitcoiner 5 Sep
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Does the Sahm Rule Point to a U.S. Recession? #670979
The Sahm Rule, an indicator that has signaled every U.S. recession since 1949, flashed red in July amid a weaker jobs report. Created in 2019 by economist Claudia Sahm, the rule states that when the three-month average U.S. unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points from the 12-month low, the U.S. is already in a recession. Yet, this signal may be overstated due to the unique labor market dynamics being seen today.
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30 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 5 Sep
Looks like we're about a month out from SHTF.
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47 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 5 Sep
Tomorrow's data will hopefully help give us some sort of insight into what the Fed is going to do. I suspect a 25 basis point cut so that Powell can say he did something without impacting the elections (granted the whole market might go up in flames but ya know oops).
By sector jobs to me seemed to be much better than I figured it would be with
Professional and business services declined 16,000, manufacturing lost 8,000, and information services declined by 4,000.
Education and health services added 29,000, construction increased 27,000, and other services contributed 20,000. Financial activities also saw a gain of 18,000 and trade, transportation and utilities was up 14,000.
I might be alone in having some slight hope with nonfarm payroll numbers tomorrow helping clear the air more but the dramatic revisions we have seen kinda have thrown whatever they say the initial numbers are into the trash
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