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August 2024 CPI Report - Graph and Key Highlights
806 sats \ 4 comments \ @Cje95 11 Sep econ
A lot of the numbers came in as expected with CPU month over month hitting the expected. HOWEVER Core inflation came in hotter than expected at 0.3% vs 0.2% for month over month.
Here’s a graphical look at the annual core CPI inflation rate. We’re of course way down from the peak, but still well above the pre-pandemic pace.
Reading things I have read here are some key highlights
Only five of the 65 forecasts in Bloomberg’s survey called for a 0.3% increase in the core CPI. Almost everyone else was at 0.2%, with four of them at 0.1%. Unsurprisingly, housing costs were the biggest culprit. The index for shelter rose 0.5% which the BLS says “was the main factor in the all items increase.” Airline fares rose a hefty 3.9% in August after falling for the previous five months This is the second straight higher than expected labor cost reading -- with real average hourly and weekly earnings rising more than forecast. Food costs barely rose in the month (+0.1%) but there was some movement under the hood. The BLS notes that the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.8% in August and the index for eggs rose 4.8%.
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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @siggy47 11 Sep
I was just listening to Faber and Cramer post release. Seems like the consensus is that a quarter is baked in now. I guess the overton window has moved to the point that cutting rates while inflation is above target is acceptable.
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64 sats \ 2 replies \ @Cje95 OP 11 Sep
I read something about a Fed bank head making the comment that if they wait till 2% then they will def send the US into a recession so they can do smaller cuts early and hold rates higher longer instead. I kinda see how that could work. I am happy to see we aren't doing the 50-point cut because I think that would only send the stock market into a tail spin
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 11 Sep
I remember you posting something a week or two ago where you claimed that rate cuts wouldn't save the market this time. I disagreed, but you might be right. The MSM take on today's action is that Wall Street is disappointed that the numbers weren't bad enough for a half point cut, but that might not be the reason.
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64 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 OP 11 Sep
Yeah I think the stock market is going into the shitter I just think in general it is going to be a pretty slow process the rest of the year. If they did big cuts I think it would shock the system and sent it spiraling much quicker.
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