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256 sats \ 21 replies \ @Undisciplined 26 Sep \ parent \ on: Predyx | Advanced Prediction Markets with Lightning Network Integration oracle
I just bet on both Kamala and Trump to lose. There was an arbitrage opportunity, so I'm guaranteed to win some sats.
Yes, you can for sure arbitrage in the initial stage. Markets are very thinly traded for now. Have fun!
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I will. I also made a real prediction that the Chiefs won't win the Super Bowl.
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Awesome! I see it :) Thanks for supporting us!
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This is awesome! We've been wanting something like it for a long time (looking at you @ek).
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@ek runs Delphi.Markets right?
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If you can call it that.
I really like giving ek shit, don't read anything into it.
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Yeah, I have to admit, my prediction about something with delphi.market and this summer didn't really come true 👀
I feel so close and yet so far away from shipping on mainnet
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I recall you saying September. It's not over till it's over.
ok :)
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Yes, but it's a thing I have talked about for almost a year now with not much to show for it. But at least you heard about it, haha
But there's also been some more talk between me, @itsTomekK and friends about prediction markets on nostr with my NIP from last year as inspiration.1
As much as it hurts me to miss out on being the first lightning-native prediction market, your site looks great and it's really exciting to see prediction markets on lightning becoming more and more of a thing. I especially like that you're planning to let users generate markets. I also had this in mind. Congratulations to shipping! Not everybody gets so far.
I tried to search for my prediction about prediction markets becoming the next big thing in bitcoin this cycle but I only found this:
Once you understand what prediction markets make possible, you go to bed each night with anxiety, feeling chronically short of prediction markets.
-- #246897
Footnotes
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Wow, that NIP is from May 11 2023! Time flies. ↩
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Just read through your post on Sep last year. You had a lot of interesting and original idea on prediction markets. I love that you were also thinking about user generated markets, private markets. Its mind blowing! Always tons of respect for original thinkers!!
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@itsTomekK and I are also good friends. He was the one who told me about you. Perhaps we can join hands, lets chat one of these days.
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I didn't. I just thought it was funny.
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Its 0% fee for now. We will add fees in Release 2.
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Yes its an early market! We didn't want to set the odds. We will let the market decide which way it wants to take it.
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Yep, that's the other one I took.
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Freak accidents happen. Either of the main candidates can fall out of the race still and be replaced by a surprise winner. A third-party candidate may steal it. Elections may be cancelled. Also, humans are bad at estimating chances/risks in general, especially for low-probability events.
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Exactly, they can't both be "yes" but they can both be "no".
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