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Predyx | Advanced Prediction Markets with Lightning Network Integration beta.predyx.com/

2472 sats \ 74 comments \ @ek 26 Sep oracle

I received this email today:

Thank you for being on our waitlist! We are thrilled to announce that Predyx is officially live! You now have access to our powerful prediction platform with seamless Lightning Network integration. It’s time to dive in and make your predictions count.

Predict Now and Win Big!

What you get with Predyx:

⚡ Real-time market predictions ⚡ Lightning-fast payouts with the Lightning Network ⚡ Micro-predictions with sats ⚡ Compete with users worldwide

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233 sats \ 17 replies \ @mega_dreamer 26 Sep

Hey @ek, Thanks for sharing!

I'm the co-founder of Predyx and I'm here to answer any questions SN folks might have.

117 sats \ 3 replies \ @ken 27 Sep

Hi! Not sure where to report a bug:

I had 500 sats in my cash balance, and when I tried to buy a position, it debited the sats from my cash but didn't add the position to my portfolio.

Otherwise, great concept!

36 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

Thanks for reporting the bug - I've noted it down, it seems payment from internal wallet is failing for some users. Our developers just went to sleep after a long day. We will fix it as soon as they wake up. Meanwhile if you want to continue playing, please use external wallets to pay for the bets. Please let me know which market was this for, and we will either refund you or issue shares of that market.

23 sats \ 1 reply \ @ken 27 Sep

Awesome, thanks for looking into it! I was trying to buy 450 sats on the yes side of "Bitcoin above $60,000 on October 25?"

Shares are fine, since we both know that bitcoin is going to be above $60,000 on October 25th :D

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

Great, we will promptly issue you 450 shares of "Bitcoin above $60,000 on October 25?" as soon as any of the devs wake up.

Yes its an easy market we created so that people can have fun in the early days :)

100 sats \ 8 replies \ @User21000000 27 Sep

Hey why do you call them predict instead of bet? It’s essentially betting on these outcomes? Is it to distance yourself from the betting world or ? Or regulations associated with gambling?

100 sats \ 7 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

Yes, actually predictions are not betting. And betting has wrong association. In reality you're just trading. We also plan to change "Bet YES/NO" to "Trade YES/NO".

The key difference between betting and predicting is that in Betting you need to wait for the event to complete, whereas in Predictions you can sell your shares early, thus minimizing your loss or maximizing your profits. And that's a very big difference, in reality you're only trading your shares, with the catch that your shares value could go to zero.

Hope this helps!

100 sats \ 6 replies \ @User21000000 27 Sep

It does thanks. Does each time sell your share you need someone willing to buy that share? And does this make a tax event like shares buy and sell would?

It’s interesting hope it goes well

142 sats \ 5 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

We use LMSR for pricing and cost calculation, thus there is no need to wait for someone to buy. The LMSR model offers a spot price. Predyx is still considered a play money market due to the micro bets nature, not sure if that will be a taxable event, but our legal team is actively looking into any kinda regulations that we need to follow.

More about LMSR (credit @ek) : http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/10/30/implementing-hansons-market-maker/

Our twitter post on LMSR: https://x.com/predyx_markets/status/1827462665431871941

100 sats \ 3 replies \ @ek OP 27 Sep

Thanks for the credit! I assume @itsTomekK mentioned it to you?

Do you have plans to add an order book? My first MVP had one but now I think an automated market maker is more important at the beginning. But with an order book anyone can add liquidity so ideally one would have both just like exchanges with their market vs limit orders.

Do you have plans to add ecash? I’ve been thinking about using ecash to avoid the problem of the price becoming stale between invoice generation and invoice payment. You could use HODL invoices but I suspect the UX would suck.

364 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer 28 Sep

Yes @itsTomekK mentioned about you and delphi.market in early January I guess.

Yes, we'll be adding order book in releases 2. Actually we did plan to launch the beta with order book, but after some internal testing, we realized that it was not ready for the release yet (our order book is slightly different and still based on lmsr pricing, it just gives you the ability to limit buy/sell at certain price point). Yes I agree in the early stage with thinly traded markets AMM is a better choice I guess. I'm pretty sure manifold uses LMSR, we compared our dynamic pricing with manifold and the results were same. With due respect to Kalshi, I've also heard that their orderbook/liquidity is not up-to the mark at least for some traders.

Enough said about our order book, I'm very curious to learn about how you built your orderbook. Would love to see the code snippet, I promise I won't steal :)

I don't have much idea about ecash. Perhaps you can teach me more about it and I would love to explore. And yes, we've thought about the same (stale price) problem too. In such events our approach has been to create a limit order for the price that was quoted. Don't try it out but it does happens now, Its shows as "Active Orders" which never gets fulfilled. And if you can cancel the order, the sats go back to your internal wallet, however there is still a major bug and doesn't work at all :)

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 28 Sep

I'm pretty sure manifold uses LMSR, we compared our dynamic pricing with manifold and the results were same.

Oh, interesting!

I'm very curious to learn about how you built your orderbook. Would love to see the code snippet, I promise I won't steal :)

No worries, happy to share! The matchmaking is in this commit. I linked to the query that I think you'll be the most interested in.

The main problem with that code was that orders required a 1:1 match. So it wasn't possible to match orders partially. If you wanted to sell X shares, another user had to buy all of them at once, it couldn't be multiple users with smaller orders. I wanted to add that later.

Don't try it out but it does happens now, Its shows as "Active Orders" which never gets fulfilled.

Oh, so that's what these active orders are about. I must admit, I did try to see if and how you handled this problem. You have to trust me that I would have reported it if I saw some way for infinite arbitrage 👀

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100 sats \ 0 replies \ @nitter 27 Sep bot

https://xcancel.com/predyx_markets/status/1827462665431871941

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 27 Sep

How long have you been working on this and with how many devs?

When and how did you get the initial idea for Predyx?

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

We've been working on Predyx since December last year, just 2 devs including me. I do DevOps and a CEO. Just three of us.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 27 Sep

Site looks great but I was only able to bet 100 sats on any outcome. Anytime I tried to bet more I got an error message saying "could not find event outcome" or something to that effect.

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

Yes duly noted, and we're working on the fix.

132 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

Wow @ek, you're a legend!

200 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 27 Sep

Haha, I just figured that someone has to pump these numbers up

But I am not here to fuck spiders either

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

lol, thanks for supporting us!

184 sats \ 23 replies \ @OT 26 Sep

This is cool!

I have someone on nostr that wants to bet me on the results of the US election. Maybe we can just use this instead.

256 sats \ 21 replies \ @Undisciplined 26 Sep

I just bet on both Kamala and Trump to lose. There was an arbitrage opportunity, so I'm guaranteed to win some sats.

72 sats \ 12 replies \ @mega_dreamer 26 Sep

Yes, you can for sure arbitrage in the initial stage. Markets are very thinly traded for now. Have fun!

125 sats \ 11 replies \ @Undisciplined 26 Sep

I will. I also made a real prediction that the Chiefs won't win the Super Bowl.

69 sats \ 10 replies \ @mega_dreamer 26 Sep

Awesome! I see it :) Thanks for supporting us!

100 sats \ 9 replies \ @Undisciplined 27 Sep

This is awesome! We've been wanting something like it for a long time (looking at you @ek).

59 sats \ 8 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

@ek runs Delphi.Markets right?

16 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 27 Sep

If you can call it that.

I really like giving ek shit, don't read anything into it.

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237 sats \ 3 replies \ @ek OP 27 Sep

Yes, but it's a thing I have talked about for almost a year now with not much to show for it. But at least you heard about it, haha

But there's also been some more talk between me, @itsTomekK and friends about prediction markets on nostr with my NIP from last year as inspiration.¹

As much as it hurts me to miss out on being the first lightning-native prediction market, your site looks great and it's really exciting to see prediction markets on lightning becoming more and more of a thing. I especially like that you're planning to let users generate markets. I also had this in mind. Congratulations to shipping! Not everybody gets so far.

I tried to search for my prediction about prediction markets becoming the next big thing in bitcoin this cycle but I only found this:

Once you understand what prediction markets make possible, you go to bed each night with anxiety, feeling chronically short of prediction markets.

-- #246897

Wow, that NIP is from May 11 2023! Time flies. ↩

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67 sats \ 2 replies \ @OT 26 Sep

Interesting. The spreads look pretty close. Hope you bet big!

What does the platform take BTW?

37 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 26 Sep

I didn't. I just thought it was funny.

38 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 26 Sep

Its 0% fee for now. We will add fees in Release 2.

230 sats \ 2 replies \ @ken 26 Sep

The odds on these markets are not properly set. Lots of opportunities here.

Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? currently has roughly 50:50 odds. Clearly the chance of any single team winning the Super Bowl is less than 50%.

27 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

Yes its an early market! We didn't want to set the odds. We will let the market decide which way it wants to take it.

221 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 26 Sep

Yep, that's the other one I took.

23 sats \ 1 reply \ @0xIlmari 27 Sep

Freak accidents happen. Either of the main candidates can fall out of the race still and be replaced by a surprise winner. A third-party candidate may steal it. Elections may be cancelled. Also, humans are bad at estimating chances/risks in general, especially for low-probability events.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 27 Sep

Exactly, they can't both be "yes" but they can both be "no".

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 26 Sep

Soon in Release 2, you'll be able to create your own private market and only you and your invited friends can bet.

For now, please request any markets that you'd like to be created for you and your friends, it'll be public market though.

74 sats \ 6 replies \ @BlokchainB 27 Sep

This email just doxxed mad email addresses😂

62 sats \ 5 replies \ @ek OP 27 Sep

haha true

There was another stacker.news address next to mine. I wondered what was that about. Did they think their LN address can receive email when they submitted that?

142 sats \ 4 replies \ @BlokchainB 27 Sep

I have no clue @mega_dreamer what happened? How yall just doxx a bunch of emails. All you had to do was BCC such a rookie mistake

151 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

Hey, really sorry it happened. It was one of us who made this big blunder.

We panicked because our Azure Email System was having an issues. Thus one of us used the proton mail to send mail manually to everyone. And accidentally sent mass CC emails instead of BCC.

28 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

Predyx is subsidiary of MegaSats, INC.

191 sats \ 1 reply \ @ek OP 27 Sep

Oh, I think the official mail used BCC. I received two, the other one from proton.me didn't.

161 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

Yes, it was in the panic mode. We kicked off the bulk mail Azure Communication Service. But some how the code got stuck and became unresponsive due to a temp outage on Azure, but it went into their queue. We waited until 20-30 mins but did not receive any blast emails thus panicked and tried to send it manually via our mail provider i.e. proton and picked the wrong send from address and CC'd. Shame on us! We will be more mindful of this, a big lesson learnt.

129 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 26 Sep

This looks pretty cool. I'll check it out later.

100 sats \ 9 replies \ @grayruby 30 Sep

@mega_dreamer got logged out and can't seem to log back in. Nothing happens when I enter username and password. I logged in with a lightning wallet to make separate account but nothing happens after I verify I am over 18.

Just an FYI.

I want to spend sats on the new sports markets. Let me in.

40 sats \ 8 replies \ @mega_dreamer 30 Sep

Looking into it.

20 sats \ 7 replies \ @mega_dreamer 30 Sep

Please try again now.

0 sats \ 6 replies \ @grayruby 30 Sep

I was able to create a new account but can't get into my original account. Maybe I am inputting the wrong password but it isn't notifying me the password is wrong.

10 sats \ 5 replies \ @mega_dreamer 30 Sep

is your original account "grayruby" ?

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 30 Sep

yes

20 sats \ 3 replies \ @mega_dreamer 30 Sep

Ok, we have changed/reset your password.

As you know we don't collect emails, can I dm you somewhere?

10 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer 30 Sep

Maybe give me your LNAddress, I will send it as invoice message.

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100 sats \ 9 replies \ @grayruby 27 Sep

Pretty nice but won't let me bet more than 100 sats on any outcome.

50 sats \ 8 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

it might be a bug, which market are you trying to bet on?

100 sats \ 7 replies \ @grayruby 27 Sep

I tried to bet on a number of the US election ones. Sorry, I message you in another comment.

Let me try again and see if I can get you some more info.

50 sats \ 4 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

yes I've been everywhere today. I created an issue tracker on GH, just in case I miss answering anyone: https://github.com/PREDYX/bug-tracker/issues

100 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 27 Sep

All good. Really like the site. I am sure all the bug will be worked out. Can you create some additional sports markets?

10 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

yes I will create, please suggest. Right now we can only do Binomial (YES/NO)

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 27 Sep

MLB Playoffs coming up. Maybe world series outcome. One for the Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

Sure I will create it on the weekend or as soon as we get a handle on our bugs :)

reply on another page

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 27 Sep

Just tried to bet on the "another debate" market. I tried 200 sats and it said "prediction not valid" and then when I exited out it said "we couldn't find the outcome"

43 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer 27 Sep

Duly noted, It will be fixed!

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @TNStacker 26 Sep

💪🏾

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