100 sats \ 4 replies \ @User21000000 3h \ parent \ on: Predyx | Advanced Prediction Markets with Lightning Network Integration oracle
Hey why do you call them predict instead of bet? It’s essentially betting on these outcomes? Is it to distance yourself from the betting world or ? Or regulations associated with gambling?
Yes, actually predictions are not betting. And betting has wrong association. In reality you're just trading. We also plan to change "Bet YES/NO" to "Trade YES/NO".
The key difference between betting and predicting is that in Betting you need to wait for the event to complete, whereas in Predictions you can sell your shares early, thus minimizing your loss or maximizing your profits. And that's a very big difference, in reality you're only trading your shares, with the catch that your shares value could go to zero.
Hope this helps!
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It does thanks.
Does each time sell your share you need someone willing to buy that share?
And does this make a tax event like shares buy and sell would?
It’s interesting hope it goes well
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We use LMSR for pricing and cost calculation, thus there is no need to wait for someone to buy. The LMSR model offers a spot price. Predyx is still considered a play money market due to the micro bets nature, not sure if that will be a taxable event, but our legal team is actively looking into any kinda regulations that we need to follow.
More about LMSR (credit @ek) : http://blog.oddhead.com/2006/10/30/implementing-hansons-market-maker/
Our twitter post on LMSR:
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