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China's Economic Tightrope: Balancing Growth and Stability
543 sats \ 11 comments \ @TomK 8 Oct econ
As China's economy shows signs of slowing, analysts question the likelihood of consumer-focused stimulus measures. Meanwhile, Q3 growth projections paint a mixed picture for the world's second-largest economy.
In a climate of economic uncertainty, China's policymakers are walking a fine line between stimulating growth and maintaining stability. Recent analyses from major financial institutions suggest that the road ahead may be bumpy for the Asian giant.
Morgan Stanley economists, led by Robin Xing, cast doubt on the prospect of significant demand stimulus in China's near future, particularly measures aimed at consumers. Following a press conference where officials struck a moderate tone on direct demand stimulation, the Morgan Stanley team noted that the gradual support measures remain largely investment-oriented.
Meanwhile, Bank of America (BofA) economists predict a further slowdown in China's GDP growth for the third quarter. They anticipate real GDP growth to decelerate to 4.6% in Q3, down from 4.7% in Q2, potentially falling short of official targets. This projection comes amid a mixed economic landscape, with improvements in the service sector offset by a slowdown in industrial production.
Looking ahead to September's economic data, BofA expects a nuanced picture. Growth in fixed asset investment and retail sales is forecast to pick up, while consumer price inflation is likely to ease.
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47 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 8 Oct
I wonder how many assets are chinese owned? Maybe they are pushing this narrative to further hurt china?
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0 sats \ 8 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 8 Oct
China has won the trade war. It produces manufactured goods at the lowest cost and highest efficiency - western manufacturers cannot compete...except in financial markets where the US still holds structural and institutional legacy advantages. This is why they are already fighting via proxies in Ukraine and Middle East and fighting over supply chain control and protocol setting, biotech, robotics, space, nanotech EVs solar and wind technology. China already leads on most of these areas. Strategic asymmetric warfare. Russia and Iran supply China with discounted oil and gas and directly attack US dependents costing the US billions while China profits. Russia and Iran demonstrate Chinas ability to provide almost complete substitute for the USD SWIFT trade network. Chinas range of manufactured goods and appetite for oil and gas and most other raw materials makes it a potential trade protocol alternative to any nation which might feel constricted by the constant threat of US sanctions. If for example, Saudi Arabia chose to join the Chinese DCEP trade payments alternative to USD SWIFT that would be pretty much game over for USD fiat debt global hegemony... one could almost get the impression China are just taking their time and in no great hurry. But, the moment that trade payments swing over to DCEP (when USD is no longer seen as solid (which we all know it isn't already!)) the process could be very swift, Taiwan could be occupied with little resistance and while the US could launch its nukes it would only lose what remaining dignity it could have saved. This war is more than most, an economic one, where direct military action is not possible. If the USA were to declare war on China it would immediately render most large US corporates bankrupt via the Trading with the Enemy Act. China has already won the trade war- that almost certainly gives it the advantage- it is very difficult (though not impossible, Churchill ultimately did triumph against Hitler, at least once US joined the war when it had already almost been won by UK and Russia!) to see the US coming back from the hugely weakened position it is in now.
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47 sats \ 7 replies \ @BlokchainB 8 Oct
Sheesh this looks like a message straight from the CCP propaganda machine.
The China miracle is over.
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0 sats \ 6 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 8 Oct
Sounds like you drank deeply on the US exceptionalism Cool Aid. You fail to respond in a fact based and reasoned manner to any of the facts and issues raised. You appear to be incapable of doing so. Instead you try to shoot the messenger, because you cannot cope with let alone respond in a reasoned manner to the facts and issues.
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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @BlokchainB 8 Oct
No I have my own opinion based on my own sources and experience.
Plus you say this stuff on a bitcoin biased platform where the CCP banned bitcoin how many times in China?
Can you even legally own bitcoin over in China before the government gets after you?
Plus from a pure immigration standpoint no one is rushing into China. I can’t own a gun in China and I can’t say Fuck Xi Jinping in or around CCP functions.
Freedom trumps material conquests every day of the week.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Solomonsatoshi 8 Oct
BTW the 'freedoms' that you enjoy are built upon centuries of western imperialism and resource hegemony which place most of the worlds people at ongoing chronic disadvantage. Look at the map of Africa- the national borders were drawn up in Europe to create multiple inherently dysfunctional 'nation states' which would forever be able to be easily manipulated, exploited and subjugated by the west- it continues to this day. The formulate was and is very simple- create 'nation states' made up of completely incompatible cultural grouping and they will never unite and always be dysfunctional and easy controlled by the west. That is what your 'western liberal democratic' freedoms are based upon.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @BlokchainB 8 Oct
I am not disputing this.
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 8 Oct
You absurdly conflate my recognition of Chinas growing economic and strategic strength with my being a supporter of China. To recognise the threat that is represented by a rising nation does not mean one supports that rising nation. It simply means one is prepared to deal with reality rather than hiude from it. You in denying the threat actually do endanger your own defense if you believe your western values are superior to those of China which I assume, from your comments so far that you do. I would consider myself slightly in favour of the western culture while recognising this is largely due to my being raised in the west. I wager you have little or zero knowledge of The Opium Wars. I live in New Zealand, not China or USA. I do not see China as necessarily 'better' or 'worse' than the west but simply as a real and imminent challenge to the west. So you fail again to respond to any of the facts and issues raised in my comment- instead diverting to irrelevant evasions of the facts and issues. As a Bitcoiner you demonstrate a dangerous lack of awareness of this issue as it does relate to Bitcoin and in an echo chamber of Bitcoiners you are likely to receive strong reinforcement for your denial of reality- but I am here to deliver some much needed balance to the narrative. Yes I am a Bitcoiner since 2017 and do not see any of my views as inconsistent with that- being a Bitcoiner does not mean you must believe only what infers price go up including much of the misguided and naive Libertarian nonsense frequently spouted as gospel on this platform.. I hod Bitcoin on principle and because the bankers have come to threaten our freedoms and democracy in the west and I want to be part of an alternative. None of that is inconsistent with recognising the challenge Chinas rise poses to the liberal democratic west...and yes the rise of China does also pose a probable threat to Bitcoin- but you would prefer to dismiss and ignore that.
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @BlokchainB 8 Oct
No I offered counter points to your thoughts on China. I often like to remind people China has blunders as well.
From economics to culture they are massively flawed just like the west. The fact they rely on foreign oil and the western market to sell their goods puts them in a bind.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 9 Oct
True they are still dependent upon importing fuel but they are developing their own energy production and efficiency at a rate not matched by any other nation. And yes they supply western markets with manufactured goods- they actually supply global markets with manufactured goods...because everyone wants the best value for money and China produces it. Now with Iran and Russia fully reliant upon China for sales of their oil and gas China is in a solid position and it is expected China will be less and less reliant upon imported fuel as its vehicle fleet is increasingly electrified. The truth is commodities producers and all nations are reliant upon Chinas economy to buy their exports and provide them with the best value manufactured goods. China has won the trade war and continues to improve its position of ever growing trade surpluses and global trade dominance while the west led by USA declines into greater and greater decadence, debt and dependency, upon China..
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 8 Oct
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