I'll take a look into it. I talked to Adam Back in Tokyo and he told me about the limit order book and token functionality on Liquid. I think it would be a solid foundation, but I'm not sure if there is an order of magnitude improvement in terms of UX over Lightning payments to make bets or send rewards and ecash tokens as shares.

In essence, the trader is always trading with a market maker, not p2p. The market maker must use LMSR (or some variant) to determine accurate forecasting of the event via the share price. So regardless, you'd still be trading with the LMSR market maker, regardless if it is on the Liquid sidechain or the ecash mint (which means you'd still be trading with us). You'd still need to trust the smart contract, that it operates properly, as designed. Even open source smart contracts can have bugs that hackers can exploit. Regardless of what product you have, there are still vulnerabilities to audit and be aware of.

The reason we use ecash, rather than authenticating with a lightning wallet, or on-chain Bitcoin addresses, is because ecash enables you to download and save your shares anonymously, and it's pretty quick to build compared to DLCs or Liquid. Investing in the R&D effort before we raise extra funds or have significant traction seems like a waste of time, though it might be good later down the line to invest in that kind of infra.