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0 sats \ 9 replies \ @SwapMarket 14 Oct \ on: Bet on the US election with sats on bitcoinprediction.market bitcoin
I have a better suggestion: use the new and powerful Liquid scripting to turn your market into a smart contract. So that everything is transparent and trustless (well, almost: you trust the Liquid Federation)! Ecash requires trust in anonymous entities, which is a no go for me.
I'll take a look into it. I talked to Adam Back in Tokyo and he told me about the limit order book and token functionality on Liquid. I think it would be a solid foundation, but I'm not sure if there is an order of magnitude improvement in terms of UX over Lightning payments to make bets or send rewards and ecash tokens as shares.
In essence, the trader is always trading with a market maker, not p2p. The market maker must use LMSR (or some variant) to determine accurate forecasting of the event via the share price. So regardless, you'd still be trading with the LMSR market maker, regardless if it is on the Liquid sidechain or the ecash mint (which means you'd still be trading with us). You'd still need to trust the smart contract, that it operates properly, as designed. Even open source smart contracts can have bugs that hackers can exploit. Regardless of what product you have, there are still vulnerabilities to audit and be aware of.
The reason we use ecash, rather than authenticating with a lightning wallet, or on-chain Bitcoin addresses, is because ecash enables you to download and save your shares anonymously, and it's pretty quick to build compared to DLCs or Liquid. Investing in the R&D effort before we raise extra funds or have significant traction seems like a waste of time, though it might be good later down the line to invest in that kind of infra.
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This is about transparency, not efficiency. Your site is a black box that can rug pull us any moment. Boltz is a market maker, but is trustless if you host the frontend yourself or use our SwapMarket. Smart contracts can create DEXes, but Ethereum sucks. The Bitcoin alternative to create smart contracts is currently Rootstock or Stacks. Liquid Federation solution promises to be more robust and trustworthy blockchain.
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Yeah and if we use Liquid smart contracts then SwapMarket could benefit. I understand more projects using alternative platforms means more potential revenue for y'all, but we need to prioritize the ability to get product to market in a reasonable amount of time. Once it's easier for us to build (either lower technical requirements, or we have more capital and time) then it would make sense for us to do that.
We care about building features that the vast majority of users really care about, not trying to win the virtue signal Bitcoiner purity test.
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Oh, I did not even think about that. SwapMarket is a non-profit hobby project to benefit Bitcoin. Swap providers compete for client flows.
At least, publish your source code. Your node is small and young, pay-outs are not transparent. Too many red flags.
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All transactions are public and fully auditable. Payouts are fully transparent: the winners split the losers sats. You can do the calculations yourself, or you could be lazy and push FUD by being a hater. If you don't want to use it, then don't use it, we're not forcing you.
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I did place my bets, to test it out. My goal is to make your site better, not to spread FUD. By the way, there is a typo in "Total Bets: 3284581 stats".
I don't like that you show everyone's bets with full lightning addresses. Better mask them for privacy with something like this: y...7@walletofsatoshi.com
There were no payouts yet, so blaming me to be lazy is unfair. I will do the calculations after the elections, don't worry.
However, I already noticed a problem with Who will win the US election? stats. I cannot find my bet placed yesterday:
$ bos pay --max-fee 100 lnbc100u1pns6gj8pp552yfs6ulv7p93ncf3k0zere4l0y2cg3y7kq9vhhs8f04u7e67mrsdzjgfjhgw3qxycrqvpsypekzarnyphkugzhdphjqamfd3kzqamfdcs8g6r9yp24xgr9d3jkxarfdahr7gzwfucqzzsxqyz5vqsp5dsvd99244cqyk2kx6kwvmlr52fvkkada3cz8v2rnjfszf9p7lzdq9p4gqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqpqysgqptcf8azyalg8s2xv7xz5vppgtgy8mnu7hds9dwngrs443p8f6dx5unllv20atfyqfekhkzhtpkscevuzjr2fpdpn64ys0uzcn27w49sps8lvta description: Bet: 10000 sats on Who will win the US election? NO destination: 02d85514f52477d0d664ef6ba18c19fd9a4e243bb88095bf12054db7dc5f67a901 expires: in a day id: a288986b9f678258cf098d9e2c8f35fbc8ac2224f580565ef03a5f5e7b3af6c7 tokens: 10000 fee: 3 id: a288986b9f678258cf098d9e2c8f35fbc8ac2224f580565ef03a5f5e7b3af6c7 latency_ms: 59322 paid: 10003 preimage: 4aea4d3c03146d1bce01d967fbe9458527bbea63156a92178dd34f93af41dd98
Same problem with Popular Vote Winner 2024:
$ bos pay --max-fee 100 lnbc100u1pns6gnqpp56n0xxz574l3vjg9qkk3hkex6mfw26dd38kt8kr8nqrre63ptftjqdz2gfjhgw3qxycrqvpsypekzarnyphkugzsdac82mrpwgs9vmm5v5s9w6twdejhygpjxqerggzwfucqzzsxqyz5vqsp56k8yc2fu02fukj5appnd0m030rkvg3twm6w603grlxkyczfz4g7q9p4gqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqpqysgqcxuevghts33m6j77kymg6l6e5pqp0wtsn8n79zusx5fwjxawzjej9x0vunmww7rw3jqha6l0feu6k5cq0xkchjydc3758w97y3rky5cq255yv7 description: Bet: 10000 sats on Popular Vote Winner 2024 NO destination: 02d85514f52477d0d664ef6ba18c19fd9a4e243bb88095bf12054db7dc5f67a901 expires: in a day id: d4de630a9eafe2c920a0b5a37b64dada5cad35b13d967b0cf300c79d442b4ae4 tokens: 10000 fee: 3 id: d4de630a9eafe2c920a0b5a37b64dada5cad35b13d967b0cf300c79d442b4ae4 latency_ms: 3357 paid: 10003 preimage: 9875d0273c1af107a027c83c3cadf4687dc993d98286974382e7a55980a81133
I did find my bet on New York Presidential Election Winner 2024, so that worked.
Please explain the first two problems and correct them.
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Ok fair enough, I can see you're very knowledgable and providing constructive feedback. I apologize for the bug there. It seems as if your payment coincided right when my co-founder was deploying an updated backend. The pending payment was recorded, but it seems like the payment confirmation was not. The table we show is only displaying confirmed payments, and since there was a backend deployment interrupting that process, once the pending payment got confirmed it didn't get successfully recorded. We've now listed your bets on the status page, hopefully we won't run into the same error again.
We're working on fixing that bug so any future backend deployments won't run into the same issue. Thank you for bringing that up.
Our objective has been to figure out how to create a long-term prediction market on Bitcoin with the best security and UX. Of course custodial isn't the ideal or optimal way, but it would be foolish of us to spend months developing product when we're uncertain of the actual market demand (been there, done that, it's not worth it).
I was doing some research into how to do non-custodial prediction markets with DLCs. I can see that it is possible, it just requires much more capital, time, and energy to build. Same goes for building on Liquid—we are in a crunch time period and need to fundraise soon, so we just don't have the time or resources at the moment to commit to building a super sophisticated product, just an MVP. In an ideal world we could raise a shitload of money from VCs and hire some wizard cypherpunk devs, but alas we are only a team of two figuring it out as we go along.
I really do appreciate your feedback.
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No problem. Thanks for the opportunity to verify and for the quick fixing!