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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @HYPERBITCOINZATION OP 15 Oct \ parent \ on: Bet on the US election with sats on bitcoinprediction.market bitcoin
https://www.bitcoinprediction.market/post/1
All transactions are public and fully auditable. Payouts are fully transparent: the winners split the losers sats. You can do the calculations yourself, or you could be lazy and push FUD by being a hater. If you don't want to use it, then don't use it, we're not forcing you.
I did place my bets, to test it out. My goal is to make your site better, not to spread FUD. By the way, there is a typo in "Total Bets: 3284581 stats".
I don't like that you show everyone's bets with full lightning addresses. Better mask them for privacy with something like this: y...7@walletofsatoshi.com
There were no payouts yet, so blaming me to be lazy is unfair. I will do the calculations after the elections, don't worry.
However, I already noticed a problem with Who will win the US election? stats. I cannot find my bet placed yesterday:
$ bos pay --max-fee 100 lnbc100u1pns6gj8pp552yfs6ulv7p93ncf3k0zere4l0y2cg3y7kq9vhhs8f04u7e67mrsdzjgfjhgw3qxycrqvpsypekzarnyphkugzhdphjqamfd3kzqamfdcs8g6r9yp24xgr9d3jkxarfdahr7gzwfucqzzsxqyz5vqsp5dsvd99244cqyk2kx6kwvmlr52fvkkada3cz8v2rnjfszf9p7lzdq9p4gqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqpqysgqptcf8azyalg8s2xv7xz5vppgtgy8mnu7hds9dwngrs443p8f6dx5unllv20atfyqfekhkzhtpkscevuzjr2fpdpn64ys0uzcn27w49sps8lvta description: Bet: 10000 sats on Who will win the US election? NO destination: 02d85514f52477d0d664ef6ba18c19fd9a4e243bb88095bf12054db7dc5f67a901 expires: in a day id: a288986b9f678258cf098d9e2c8f35fbc8ac2224f580565ef03a5f5e7b3af6c7 tokens: 10000 fee: 3 id: a288986b9f678258cf098d9e2c8f35fbc8ac2224f580565ef03a5f5e7b3af6c7 latency_ms: 59322 paid: 10003 preimage: 4aea4d3c03146d1bce01d967fbe9458527bbea63156a92178dd34f93af41dd98
Same problem with Popular Vote Winner 2024:
$ bos pay --max-fee 100 lnbc100u1pns6gnqpp56n0xxz574l3vjg9qkk3hkex6mfw26dd38kt8kr8nqrre63ptftjqdz2gfjhgw3qxycrqvpsypekzarnyphkugzsdac82mrpwgs9vmm5v5s9w6twdejhygpjxqerggzwfucqzzsxqyz5vqsp56k8yc2fu02fukj5appnd0m030rkvg3twm6w603grlxkyczfz4g7q9p4gqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqpqysgqcxuevghts33m6j77kymg6l6e5pqp0wtsn8n79zusx5fwjxawzjej9x0vunmww7rw3jqha6l0feu6k5cq0xkchjydc3758w97y3rky5cq255yv7 description: Bet: 10000 sats on Popular Vote Winner 2024 NO destination: 02d85514f52477d0d664ef6ba18c19fd9a4e243bb88095bf12054db7dc5f67a901 expires: in a day id: d4de630a9eafe2c920a0b5a37b64dada5cad35b13d967b0cf300c79d442b4ae4 tokens: 10000 fee: 3 id: d4de630a9eafe2c920a0b5a37b64dada5cad35b13d967b0cf300c79d442b4ae4 latency_ms: 3357 paid: 10003 preimage: 9875d0273c1af107a027c83c3cadf4687dc993d98286974382e7a55980a81133
I did find my bet on New York Presidential Election Winner 2024, so that worked.
Please explain the first two problems and correct them.
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Ok fair enough, I can see you're very knowledgable and providing constructive feedback. I apologize for the bug there. It seems as if your payment coincided right when my co-founder was deploying an updated backend. The pending payment was recorded, but it seems like the payment confirmation was not. The table we show is only displaying confirmed payments, and since there was a backend deployment interrupting that process, once the pending payment got confirmed it didn't get successfully recorded. We've now listed your bets on the status page, hopefully we won't run into the same error again.
We're working on fixing that bug so any future backend deployments won't run into the same issue. Thank you for bringing that up.
Our objective has been to figure out how to create a long-term prediction market on Bitcoin with the best security and UX. Of course custodial isn't the ideal or optimal way, but it would be foolish of us to spend months developing product when we're uncertain of the actual market demand (been there, done that, it's not worth it).
I was doing some research into how to do non-custodial prediction markets with DLCs. I can see that it is possible, it just requires much more capital, time, and energy to build. Same goes for building on Liquid—we are in a crunch time period and need to fundraise soon, so we just don't have the time or resources at the moment to commit to building a super sophisticated product, just an MVP. In an ideal world we could raise a shitload of money from VCs and hire some wizard cypherpunk devs, but alas we are only a team of two figuring it out as we go along.
I really do appreciate your feedback.
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No problem. Thanks for the opportunity to verify and for the quick fixing!
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I bet no on bitcoin reaching 80k by Nov 5. I don't see this bet anymore on https://www.bitcoinprediction.market/ so I assume it has closed. However, I am not seeing any payout either. Is this supposed to be automatic?
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