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30 sats \ 10 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 10 Nov \ parent \ on: All States are Empires of Lies econ
The compounding errors of stacking various mathematical models on top of each other is one of the main issues in modern macro.
The simplifying assumptions that convert Austrian Theory into mathematical microeconomics really aren't very bad. There are a handful of rationality assumptions that still allow for a very broad realistic range of preferences. I think there's some value in making that tradeoff, because being able to use mathematical notation is really powerful.
The problem, though, is that en route to building up macro models, far more simplifying assumptions are introduced. By the end, there's little semblance of real human action remaining.
That’s right. The simplifying assumptions take the rigor out of the logical thought and conclusions drawn. A lot of the simplifications are aggregations. When you aggregate data you loose all the fine grain focus of the original data. Sometimes the data become useless because it looses its acuity. This may be the problem with the BLS data and how they botch everything, then take more guesses.
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I think the data issues are largely separate from the theoretical ones.
Aggregation is probably the fundamental error of macroeconomics now. Doing so in the way they do it, is flagrantly contradictory to the key findings of Social Choice Theory.
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It is flagrantly contradictory to Austrian economic theory, Social Choice Theory, common sense and even uncommon sense. They don’t even make sense to themselves, for that matter. I don’t think they take a critical look at what they are publishing before they publish it for the laughs and belly chuckles it will get. Sometimes, if it is too good to be true, than it isn’t true.
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That does remind me of something I heard, but I don't remember from where exactly. I want to say Steve Levitt.
Anyway, it was a prominent economist answering a question about macro forecasts and he said that almost no economists actually believe macro models, including the economists using and creating them.
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I can believe that one!! :)
Makes you wonder about how they put out the baloney they slice and dice for us.
They know it is baloney, we know it is baloney and they know we know it is baloney….etc.
I earned my BS detector the hard way, floating in BS continually and trying to survive.
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I actually don't think it's always their fault. Many of them are just exploring different models. Publishing forecasts based on those models is supposed to establish a baseline to later judge the model against.
They often aren't asserting that people should act as though the forecast is accurate, but if they get convenient results some activist group will start broadcasting the results far and wide.
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That is so. The activist group or even hyperventilating profiteer make all the noise that attracts attention to the model. Then they try to form others’ opinions based on the models.
Hey, doesn’t this seem familiar? It seems to me that this sounds a lot like scientism or The ScienceTM.
It is a bit tedious.
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BTW, I have never heard of Steve Levitt.
Who is he?
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Freakonomics author. I may have misspelled his name.
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Ok, I am familiar with freakonomics! It is somewhat interesting in that it looks at unusual topics. Wasn’t he the one who wrote about sumo? I used to watch every sumo tournament’s highlights when there was a tournament, through the whole thing.
When I saw the article about sumo, it brought back memories.
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