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The Dow rose nearly 800 points Monday, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq added 2.7% and 2.3%, respectively, as dip buyers emerged to blunt a Fed-induced selloff that dragged Wall Street to levels not seen in almost two years. The ISM Purchasing Managers Index showed manufacturing activity growing at its slowest pace in 30 months as new orders headed into contractionary territory. Yields fell on the news, with investors hoping that price pressures are abating and that the Fed has reached peak hawkishness. Now all eyes are on the US job report for September for further clues on the central bank's rate-hike path. On the corporate side, Tesla tumbled over 7% after the electric-car maker's quarterly vehicle deliveries fell short of analysts' estimates. Last quarter, the Dow fell 6.7% to post a three-quarter losing streak for the first time since 2015. The S&P and Nasdaq dropped 5.3% and 4.1%, respectively, to notch their third consecutive negative quarter for the first time since 2009.
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Bulls are anticipating the fed pivot. If fed governors keep talking tough on inflation this rally could be short lived. There's a good chance the bond market dislocation has already done damage that hasn't been revealed yet. If that's the case it will force a quick pivot
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If the fed doesn't pivot, bond liquidity dries up as everyone hoards cash to pay down their US denominated debt.
If fed does pivot, it's an admission of defeat and that the offramp for QE must be delayed (or abandoned all together).
It would be really interesting to get @lynadlencontact's thoughts here
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