TLDR: I think the winners of this round will be Thunder, Rockets, Bucks, and Knicks. I picked the Warriors because I'm low on picks, but still want to win the pool, so I'm taking a risk even though I think they will lose in the first round.

The NBA Cup is shaping up to be an entertaining event during an uneventful couple of months during the NBA season. The pool run by @Undisciplined made it much more engaging, at least for me anyways. Once again, thanks for running the pool. I have some thoughts on the upcoming games and thought I'll share them. They are just my views, and my track record (number of picks I have remaining in the pool) shows that I probably don't know what I'm talking about anyways, so just see it as entertainment.

With that said, let's get right into it. I'm going to start with my predictions of this round. I think the winners for this round will be Thunder, Rockets, Bucks, and Knicks.

Although the Mavs beat the Thunder last year in the playoffs, I think the Thunder is a much better team with the addition of Hartenstein and Caruso. Last year in the playoffs, we saw that the Thunder didn't have enough size and Chet wasn't able to out rebound nor be effective against players like Gafford and Lively. Hartenstein is here to fix that now and fix that he will. Although with only 7 games played, but Hartenstein is averaging a double double, playing meaningful minutes, while causing trouble for the other teams' bigs. Caruso is Caruso, he won't show up on the boxscore, but will show up big time if you watch the game and will annoy the crap out of the other teams' scorers. With the original young core intact, hands all over the court forcing turnovers here and there, everyone running the court on offense and defense, I really don't see the Thunder losing the the Mavs. Maybe if Luka and/or Kyrie have one of those crazy can't miss nights, the Thunder is toast; but I think it's unlikely because the Thunder is just that good on defense.

I think the Rockets will beat the Warriors, but the Warriors have a chance. I don't think the Warriors have a solution for Sengun when he plays well. The Warriors are just too small and Sengun can bully them all game to lead the Rockets to victory. No, I do not think Looney can even slow down Sengun, let alone stop him. If they double, Sengun can kick it out for 3's as the Rockets have some decent shooters on the team. Green and/or VanVleet can also explode on offense and beat the Warriors that way, although I think the Warrior's wing defense is good enough to keep the Rockets' guards in check. All hope is not lost for the Warriors though, as the game on Dec. 5th shows that they can beat the Rockets even without Steph and Draymond. But beating the Rockets seem to require Sengun to have a bad game, plus Kuminga to be unstoppable. Of course, if both Steph and Draymond plays, the Warriors have more options on offense, but they have to be able to finish. I was watching last night's game of Warriors vs TWolves, and the Warriors were throwing horrible passes all game, causing many turnovers. Plus, they couldn't finish even if they had a hot chick deepthroating them (sorry for the vulgar imagery); in the game of basketball, if you can't finish (can't make baskets), you lose the game, very simple. So I think this one comes down to which version of the Warriors we get on Wednesday as well as what type of game Sengun will have. But I think the odds are in favor of the Rockets.

The Bucks are facing off against the Magic for the first time this season. There was no prior match between them this season. With Banchero still out, although the Wagner brothers are balling, especially Franz, I don't think it's enough for the Magic to beat the Bucks. Also, I really think the Bucks have turned the page and saved their season; with Giannis averaging a 30 point double double, Dame averaging 26 so far this season, and the supporting cast like Portis Jr., Lopez, Trent Jr., finally helping with the scoring, I really think they can beat the Magic. One other stat to take note is home court advantage. The Magic are 9-0 at home, but 7-9 on the road; while the Bucks are 8-4 at home and 3-7 on the road. Odds from this season favors the home team, and the Bucks will be playing at home.

The Knicks and the Hawks is a fun one. There is definitely still plenty of history left from the 2021 Knicks playoff run and Trae Young is still a big villain at MSG with his chilling daggers thrown down at MSG silencing the crowd. They played one game earlier this season on Nov. 6, where the Hawks beat the Knicks 121-116. That said, I definitely think the Knicks will beat the Hawks, because the Knicks had been playing very well lately. Brunson is great as usual. KAT seems to have found his place on the team, making good decisions, giving good offense and contributing to defense. The whole Knicks team is just playing well together having strong offense. For the Hawks to win, I think they have to really outscore the Knicks, as both teams are mediocre in terms of defense, I don't think either team will beat the other with defense. On that note, I think the Knicks offense has an edge over the Hawks, but I think it will be a close one. Either way, I expect this one to be a high scoring offensive showcase kind of game.

With the matchups laid out and my views expressed, I want to talk about my pick. I only have 4 teams available to pick from, Warriors, Thunder, Bucks, and Hawks. If I still want to win the pool, which I definitely do, I must save the team I think will win the cup and work my way backwards. If I just focus on surviving, I will run out of picks very quickly and lose due to not having picks. I believe the Thunder will win the cup, as they are just that much better than the other teams; especially with the Cavs and Celtics not in the knockout stage, the Thunder have a really good chance. That means I cannot take the Thunder this nor next round. I also think the Knicks will win the East in the semifinal round, but because I used them already in the group stage, I think the Bucks is the next best bet. That means I need to save the Bucks for the semifinal round and cannot use them this round. That leaves the Hawks and the Warriors available for me to pick this round. Out of the two matchups, I think I have a better chance with the Warriors beating the Rockets than the Hawks beating the Knicks, so I picked the Warriors this round.

If you read all the way down to here, thank you for your time reading this wall of text. Again, this is just my point of view and can be completely wrong. Do your own research.