But if OP is looking for a timeline, I believe sometime shortly before the halving after next, we will see the reality of Bitcoins scarcity begin to set in.
Do not underestimate how many people don’t know Bitcoin is even scarce in the first place. We have an immense advantage by simply knowing what a halving and a difficulty adjustment means for the economics surrounding Bitcoin.
It sets in one person at a time.
I couldn’t think of a better way to word it.
But if OP is looking for a timeline, I believe sometime shortly before the halving after next, we will see the reality of Bitcoins scarcity begin to set in.
Do not underestimate how many people don’t know Bitcoin is even scarce in the first place. We have an immense advantage by simply knowing what a halving and a difficulty adjustment means for the economics surrounding Bitcoin.
It's already happening. A decade-ish ago, every coin was worth near zero dollars. Now it's about 20,000 more expensive than the dollar itself.
It already has. For me 5000 sats is alot, im not even going to spend that on a coffee. But i could be wrong
The bitcoin exchange rate as I type this is ~$19,000.
If you are willing to pay at the rate of $19,100 per bitcoin at this moment, then bitcoin is not scarce.
If you only want to pay at the rate of $18,900 per bitcoin at this moment, then bitcoin is scarce.
So your question doesn't make sense to me. It ceases to be scarce at a certain price.
Scarcity sets in after every halving. Price will skyrocket when mining rewards are less than 1 bitcoin. This is why I'm stacking every sat I can earn.
It used to be worthless, then it was 10 cents, then it was 10 bucks...
The scarcity is setting in as we speak.