If we look at the current Swift data, we can see three things: 1. the dollar is far from dead as it is always talked about, 2. the euro has lost much of its importance after phasing out Russian gas imports and cannot recover, and 3. Asian currencies such as the yuan continue to play virtually no role in international business. It will be interesting to see how the BRICS currency project develops against the backdrop of this fact. Confidence in these currencies is likely to be zero!
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164 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 29 Dec 2024
Just a heads up that I cut the ~econ posting fee in half.
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33 sats \ 3 replies \ @Cje95 29 Dec 2024
Ur a hero! NGL I hated that fee so much but I understood it as well lol!
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10 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 29 Dec 2024
Hopefully, you'll drop some posts there.
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25 sats \ 1 reply \ @Cje95 29 Dec 2024
Oh yeah 110% will be adding more of them there!!!!
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 29 Dec 2024
Awesome! I'm looking forward to it.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 29 Dec 2024
Its still 108 precious sats!
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48 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 29 Dec 2024
I don't hear about Russia suffering post SWIFT ruble removal. Do you think it has?
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100 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 29 Dec 2024
Doesn't look so. But the currency talk of the brics seems silent too
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42 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 29 Dec 2024
Russia was only able to invade Ukraine because it had already secured a mutual support pact with China.
This is the Kremlins version of it-
'The Russian side reaffirms its support for the One-China principle, confirms that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and opposes any forms of independence of Taiwan.
The sides oppose further enlargement of NATO and call on the North Atlantic Alliance to abandon its ideologized cold war approaches, to respect the sovereignty, security and interests of other countries, the diversity of their civilizational, cultural and historical backgrounds, and to exercise a fair and objective attitude towards the peaceful development of other States.'
http://www.en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770
China has since the invasion purchased most of the Russian gas and oil which was previously exported to Europe. This is paid for outside of SWIFT. China pays at a discount on world prices similar to its arrangement with Iran.
China gains increased exports to Russia, ostensibly of non military manufactured goods although there are obviously areas where what is of military utility is arguable.
The Russia-China pact has been widely seen by Western analysts as a direct challenge to the US based global order.
If Russias Ukraine adventure is successful then it is another step toward Chinas goal of regaining control over Taiwan.
Already the war has demonstrated Chinas capacity to support and sustain both ongoing exports and imports and trade payments to a Russia where Russia has been sanctioned by US/SWIFT.
This is in addition to China more than decade long support of Iran despite US sanctions on Iran.
This is China demonstrating it is an alternative to US SWIFT trade payments imperialism.
They are not using Bitcoin- they are using Yuan - some of it CBDC Yuan.
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47 sats \ 2 replies \ @Satosora 29 Dec 2024
I read somewhere that Russia is experimenting with bitcoin in order to move funds.
Would be interesting if BRICS adopts bitcoin, but will have to wait and see.
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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 29 Dec 2024
Yes, they are indeed
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 29 Dec 2024
It could strengthen the bitcoin economy even more.
Imagine if trade started happening in btc!
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47 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 29 Dec 2024
Russia has expressed interest in bitcoin as a way to circumvent sanctions
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11 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 29 Dec 2024
Yep
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42 sats \ 2 replies \ @anon 29 Dec 2024
BRICS? lol. The Ruble is a shitcoin:
It's a shitcoin even against the Euro:
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 29 Dec 2024
Yes but the Yuan is not.
All nations must trade with China or suffer loss.
What do you think the Russian oil and gas that is now flowing into China (at a nice discount) is settled with?
What is the Iranian oil that is flowing into China bypassing US sanctions settled with?
Its not in dollars or Euros and its not routed via SWIFT...
Chinas CBDC Yuan is designed to provide a US sanctions proof alternative to SWIFT- and it does.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 29 Dec 2024
Worse than the Euro... that's a masterpiece
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14 sats \ 0 replies \ @SqNr65 29 Dec 2024
This is like the CPI tho
It shows the dominance of the usd within the swift system
But it doesn't show what's happening outside of it
It may be the same picture
But more data is needed before an assessment can be made
When you say other currencies "play virtually no role in international business" you should replace "international business" with "the swift system". That would be more accurate given the available information.
Ya feel me?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @a40ecaacec 29 Dec 2024
BRICS gave up on their currency, never made sense anyway.
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0 sats \ 4 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 29 Dec 2024
The whole point of a BRICS Pay alternative to SWIFT is to bypass SWIFT.
Where do you think the trade payments for Russian oil that WAS going via SWIFT denominated in Euros but that has shifted to Russias new sponsor China is being settled?
Clue- its NOT on SWIFT!
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7 sats \ 3 replies \ @TomK OP 29 Dec 2024
Yes, I know. But why is China issueing usd bonds?
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 29 Dec 2024
No idea.
You tell me.
edit- It could be because China is careful to remain inside the USD SWIFT system while it is still dominant even while China builds its alternative. Hong Kong provides an important window into the US/SWIFT system and also provides the perfect position from which to reverse engineer the monetary imperialism that was imposed from 1840.
Why are you treating SWIFT data as reporting the total trade volumes and settlement volumes when an increasing volume is not occurring via SWIFT?
One thing is sure China is in no hurry- it is careful to 'save face' for the declining US position, but is also steadily building its alternative trade payments routes.
https://www.ledgerinsights.com/bis-hands-over-mbridge-cbdc-payment-system-after-brics-controversy/
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7 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 29 Dec 2024
The world needs dollars to roll usd den. massive debtband its problrmatic after the Fed rose rates. The eurodollar market ist the world's big credit pump. I think You underrate the dominance of the us financial market. There is a lot of brics propaganda in circulation that got me from time to time too. We need more rational analysis without emotion
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 29 Dec 2024
Yes USD is still dominant but trade outside its SWIFT hegemony is increasing.
Do we have the data for that trade? Mostly no.
US hegemony is now heavily reliant upon its legacy USD dominance and the seigniorage and interest income that provides. That legacy was built upon US trade and military dominance post WW2. US retains conventional military dominance but China is working on that.
China is in no hurry but equally via Iran and Russia it is demonstrating it can settle trade with USD/SWIFT sanctioned nations outside of SWIFT channels - and the Saudis and others are not blind to this.
China now sources most of Irans and Russia energy exports, at a discounted price, with the bonus that that trade funds wars with US allies, imposing huge cost upon the US military...while China also enjoys quasi captive markets for its exports to Iran and Russia.
Sun Tzu would approve.
US power is based upon and dependent upon USD monetary hegemony.
S.Korea, Japan, Canada, Australasia, Europe and UK are all monetarily and militarily subservient tribute states to the US.
But China has won the trade war- all nations must trade with China or suffer because China offers the best commodity prices and provides the lowest cost consumer goods.
The West, even Japan, cannot compete with Chinese manufacturing.
Historically and logically trade dominance results in monetary dominance.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Solomonsatoshi 29 Dec 2024
China now buys most of Russia gas and crude oil exports.
This trade is not settled via SWIFT.
Look at the Euros decline since its gas trade with Russia ended...
A lot of trade is not going via SWIFT- China has new conduits which are invisible to SWIFT.
The Chinese CBDC was designed to enable this.
SWIFT is an antiquated, slow and expensive relic of US imperialism - like US imperialism it is in gradual decline...the Chinese are in no hurry to take over- but the trend and logic is in their favour as all major economies need to trade with China or suffer considerable economic loss...
China has won the trade war - US, EU even Japanese EV manufacturers cannot compete.
Monetary hegemony has historically always followed trade domination.
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