All Your Models are Destroyed — The Rise and Future Fall of MicroStrategy \ stacker news ~Stacker

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All Your Models are Destroyed — The Rise and Future Fall of MicroStrategy medium.com/@bdratings/all-your-models-are-destroyed-the-rise-and-future-fall-of-microstrategy-5916dd3c0021

1110 sats \ 25 comments \ @k00b 29 Dec 2024 Stacker_Stocks

I don't own Microstategy and don't care, but the drama around it is occasionally entertaining. This is reads like super bloated FUD-y blog. The main FUD tells are there: the one-sided-ness, ie everyone involved is a crook or an idiot.

I don't buy the infinite-upside, will-never-be-ugly, narrative around Microstategy either, so it's nice to have some smelling salts while I watch people sleep walking on the moon. Afaict, if you're bullish on bitcoin, and bearish on the dollar, it makes sense that Microstategy might've financially engineered a speculative attack that'll live as long as bitcoin bears and dollar bulls do. Whether the attack is priced appropriately though is above my pay grade.

Some counterarguments to the novella are laid out in the thread I found this in.

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142 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 29 Dec 2024

What the haters don't get it yes there will be a point that MSTR equity doesn't trade at a large premium to underlying Bitcoin but this doesn't mean investors will "suffer massive losses". Maybe in Bitcoin terms, but not in fiat terms because MSTR will still rise in fiat terms along with Bitcoin it will just underperform Bitcoin.

Bitcoin could go up 100% and MSTR only go up 33%. That would return NAV close to par but wouldn't be "massive losses".

My biggest concern about what Saylor is doing is he seems to be trying to front load all his buys while the door to raise capital is open. Maybe he should sit on some of that disgusting fiat he raises and deploy it during the next bear market.

91 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 29 Dec 2024

Saylor strategy only works in a bull market.

In 2022, MSTR was trading at 70 percent discount or premium = 0.3

33 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 29 Dec 2024

Yeah. Probably doesn't trade below NAV next bear market. I think a lot of that had to do with the market pricing in him potentially getting liquidated. I could be wrong but I don't think the next bear will be a 70% drawdown so it probably trades around NAV but he likely won't be able to raise capital so freely.

29 sats \ 1 reply \ @SwapMarket 29 Dec 2024

61 min read is 10x my attention span

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 29 Dec 2024

6 confirmations

71 sats \ 12 replies \ @kepford 29 Dec 2024

it makes sense that Microstategy might've financially engineered a speculative attack that'll live as long as bitcoin bears and dollar bulls do. Whether the attack is priced appropriately though is above my pay grade.

A humble and entirely rational take. I find it comical how worked up people get about Saylor and MicroStrategy.

205 sats \ 11 replies \ @kepford 29 Dec 2024

I should get my thoughts out about this but it seems to me many bitcoiners remind me of my younger self. Idealistic and naive about the world. Believing people will see the light and that there will be mass adoption to their ultra pure ideology. It reaks of adolescent libertarianism.

It is fine, it doesn't concern me as much as it does some. You see these articles decrying toxic maxis and cultish behavior. It's funny to me. As soon as something that young men in an out group gives them economic power it must be ridiculed.

It will all work out in the end.

32 sats \ 10 replies \ @kepford 29 Dec 2024

Since reading the "Genisis Block" I have been wondering about the shifting of cultural aspects of bitcoin. Cultures evolve over time and I wonder what long time bitcoiners think about the shifts in bitcoin culture over time. I suspect it has had shifts over time and that will not stop. Eventually there won't be a bitcoin culture. It will just be society.

80 sats \ 9 replies \ @k00b OP 29 Dec 2024

Many of the earliest Gs are completely checked out afaict. Among those that persist, there's a type that begins to play power games (more common among nontechnical Ver-types who feel like they have command over the people). Then there's another type that mostly chimes in to assist sense-making from time to time and without expectations.

I haven't seen enough of bitcoin culture to appreciate how it's changed, but it feels like the rank and file haven't grown with the price.

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 29 Dec 2024

Grown in number or maturity and experience?

11 sats \ 7 replies \ @Satosora 30 Dec 2024

I dont want to sound ignorant, but a lot of bitcoiners I knew that adopted it early only used it for silk road. Half of their brain cells are already fried. They cant even remember if they still hold bitcoin.

10 sats \ 6 replies \ @Bell_curve 30 Dec 2024

Silk Road was my intro to bitcoin

11 sats \ 5 replies \ @Satosora 30 Dec 2024

Silk road was yours? I never used it, but I had heard a lot about it during that time. I was more into the gambling aspect during that time. Bitcoin was flying everywhere.

10 sats \ 4 replies \ @Bell_curve 30 Dec 2024

there was bitcoin gambling in 2012? I had no idea

on Tor?

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22 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 29 Dec 2024

I was reading something similar to this. But it went in the opposite direction. It was saying in Saylor kept buying, and corners the market on bitcoin, it would discourage other people from buying it and then it could flounder. Not that that would ever happen, but it was a fresh perspective.

11 sats \ 0 replies \ @SatsMate 30 Dec 2024

Can one be a bitcoin maxi and hold Microstrategy? Bitcoin maxis don't have actual ownership of bitcoin, you are holding a centralized company that is holding bitcoin on an exchange (a portion is on the exchanges from my research) and there can always be large changes in corp. strategy if Saylor leaves the helm.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nitter 29 Dec 2024 bot

https://xcancel.com/bezantdenier/status/1865102832845598772

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Skipper 30 Dec 2024

I just can't wait for Coinbase to get hacked and lose Mr Saylor coins.