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142 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 29 Dec 2024 \ on: All Your Models are Destroyed — The Rise and Future Fall of MicroStrategy Stacker_Stocks
What the haters don't get it yes there will be a point that MSTR equity doesn't trade at a large premium to underlying Bitcoin but this doesn't mean investors will "suffer massive losses". Maybe in Bitcoin terms, but not in fiat terms because MSTR will still rise in fiat terms along with Bitcoin it will just underperform Bitcoin.
Bitcoin could go up 100% and MSTR only go up 33%. That would return NAV close to par but wouldn't be "massive losses".
My biggest concern about what Saylor is doing is he seems to be trying to front load all his buys while the door to raise capital is open. Maybe he should sit on some of that disgusting fiat he raises and deploy it during the next bear market.
Saylor strategy only works in a bull market.
In 2022, MSTR was trading at 70 percent discount or premium = 0.3
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Yeah. Probably doesn't trade below NAV next bear market. I think a lot of that had to do with the market pricing in him potentially getting liquidated. I could be wrong but I don't think the next bear will be a 70% drawdown so it probably trades around NAV but he likely won't be able to raise capital so freely.
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