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@mega_dreamer is the Predyx guy
Got it! Will create a market for this shortly. Is H5N1 exact strain for this particular market?
Perhaps you could make an explanation of this for the noobies, like me.
Sure:
🐦 Market Explanation for Beginners🐦 Market Explanation for Beginners
Market Question:
Is the current bird flu strain man-made?
What does this mean?
Some scientists and experts, like Dr. Peter McCullough, suggest that the bird flu strain spreading right now might have been created in a lab through a process called gain-of-function research. This market is about predicting whether official sources or scientific studies will confirm that this is true.
- If it turns out to be true, the market resolves YES.
- If no proof emerges by the end of 2025, the market resolves NO.
🔮 What is a Prediction Market?🔮 What is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market is a place where people bet on the outcome of real-world events – like elections, sports games, or scientific discoveries. Instead of guessing randomly, participants use news, research, and analysis to make their bets. The market price reflects what the crowd thinks the chance of something happening is.
Example:
- Imagine a market asking, “Will it rain tomorrow?”
- If many people bet YES, the price of "YES" shares goes up, showing the crowd believes rain is likely.
- If most people bet NO, the "NO" price rises, signaling less belief in rain.
If you bet correctly, you win money. If you're wrong, you lose.
Why use prediction markets?
- Crowds are smart! – By pooling the knowledge of many people, prediction markets often forecast events better than individual experts.
- You can profit from being right – If you spot trends or know something others don’t, you can earn by betting early.
👉 This market lets you bet on whether bird flu was man-made, based on upcoming discoveries or official confirmations.
I know this phenomenon, it is a basic of freemarket economics. I think the first case was back in the 1907 of a crowd, in aggregate, guessing the weight of an oxen accurately when they were putting up their own money for an individual guess. It might have been Francis Galton who ran the experiment.
Where are you making the market for guesses?
Yes, you're right! That phenomenon is now know as Prediction Market.
Here's the market link: https://beta.predyx.com/market/is-the-current-bird-flu-strain-man-made
Thanks, I have never seen this website before.
Pls let me know if this looks ok:
Market Question:
Is the current bird flu strain man-made?
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to YES if credible, peer-reviewed publications or official statements confirm that the circulating strain clade 2.3.4.4b of bird flu resulted from gain-of-function research conducted at the USDA Poultry Research Laboratory in Athens, Georgia.
- Resolution will be based on direct admissions, peer-reviewed papers, or high-profile investigations.
- The market will resolve to NO if no confirmation is made by December 31, 2025.
- Conflicting information will default to NO unless conclusive evidence emerges.
Sources:
- Peer-reviewed journals
- USDA statements/publications
- University of Wisconsin or Rotterdam University reports
- Reputable media and official investigations
Is this for an AI query? Or is it something like a Delphi poll?
Yes, it is a kind of one-run Delphi poll. Delphi polls usually run two or three or more runs where the people being polled are given the information of the results and who the experts in the poll were and asked to guess again to refine the accuracy of the poll. They are remarkably accurate.
Looks great ahaha
What’s a Predyx, some kind of Dino?
@ek we need a Predyx for this