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The abstract alone is wild:
Venture capital-backed companies account for 41% of total US market capitalization and 62% of US public companies’ R&D spending. Among public companies founded within the last fifty years, VC-backed companies account for half in number, three quarters by value, and more than 92% of R&D spending and patent value. The US did not spawn top public companies at a higher rate than other large, developed countries prior to 1970s ERISA reforms, but produced twice as many after it. Using those reforms as a natural experiment suggests that the US VC industry is causally responsible for the rise of one-fifth of the current largest 300 US public companies and that three-quarters of the largest US VC-backed companies would not have existed or achieved their current scale without an active VC industry.
I wasn't aware of ERISA, but this kind of implies the biggest thing holding other countries back from creating more companies is over regulation of investment.
Prior to the 1974 Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), managers and trustees of private pension funds followed Mark Twain’s famous quip when it came to investing in risky assets: “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” As it was legally risky for institutional investors to invest in assets perceived as excessively risky, managers of VC funds struggled to secure institutional capital. ERISA allowed pension fund trustees to invest in the “alternative” asset space for the first time. This change led VC funds and other investment vehicles such as mutual funds, private equity funds, and hedge funds to come into prominence
And nothing else of any significance happened in say 1971.
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touche
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I'm not even positing an alternate hypothesis, although I think it would be easy enough to formulate one.
Whenever I work with financial time series, there's a structural break in the early 70's that completely baffles everyone else. They assume something significant must have happened in that sector, rather than think about how the whole monetary system changed.
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I didn't read the paper, but as a referee the first thing I'm thinking is whether institutional investors in the other G7 countries are also barred from VC from the 70s to the 2000s, which is where their chart shows the divergence.
Obviously many other things happened in the 70s so it's hard to say for sure that this was definitely due to ERISA. It's plausible though that it had a major effect
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Nothing happend in the 70s move on!
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Venture capital is a tough business. We hear about the famous one but not the ones who go out of business
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The hardest part has got to be that the feedback cycle is incredibly long. It can take a decade to learn if you're any good at it and by then so much time has passed it's that much more indistinguishable from luck.
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Are you referring to the venture investor, the startup, or both?
But yes, that long runway to profitability seems like a huge challenge that would put off most people
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I mostly meant the investors. They need a few very definitive outcomes which tend to happen slowly (although there are probably signs the outcome is happening). Startups want those outcomes, but aren't diversified enough that they're expected to get one. That's my sense at least.
To put it another way, great founders can fail by making one bad decision. Great investors often succeed by making one really good decision every few years. So for a long time, a soon-to-be great investor will mostly look like a failure.
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what is the success rate for a VC? 5 or 10 percent?
You will have more failures than successes but the one success can 10x or 100x or more
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I'm in the arena, but I'm seated in the nose bleeds, so I couldn't tell ya. I'm just mouthing off for the most part.
But, the few early stage investors that I'm aware of are considered world class for having invested in 2-5 unicorns early. It's like one unicorn is rare, and getting one is perhaps luck, but two or more means you have a secret.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @galt 5 Jan
1971 Nixon shock, fake money, ERISA, 401k, VC culture, Wall Street casino we sit just before the reboot
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Wow, 😮 those numbers are mind blowing! VC has clearly played a massive role in shaping modern US economy especially in innovation and R&D.
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