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835 sats \ 71 comments \ @mega_dreamer 28 Jan oracle

We're Back Online! 🚀

The underlying issue that impacted us last week has been fixed, and we're back stronger than ever. Thank you for your patience and support!

If you encounter any issues, please report them promptly at support @predyx.com.

@grayruby - sorry, @Undisciplined and @south_korea_ln randomly showed up before the announcement.

cc @Shugard @Coinsreporter @DarkStacker @TNStacker

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120 sats \ 1 reply \ @TheMorningStar 29 Jan

Great! Was that an hacker attack?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 12h

Yes it was.

150 sats \ 17 replies \ @Coinsreporter 29 Jan

Great News! What about the resolution for BBL Market? My last bet on Hobart Hurricanes isn't showing up there?

83 sats \ 14 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

Yes, I was about to post this:

Re: BBL @Undisciplined @grayruby @Coinsreporter

The market is closed, Not sure if this market got impacted. If you guys want, I can open-up the market for short while and you guys can complete your bets. Then we can resolve it. BTW which team is the winner?

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 29 Jan

I'm fine with just letting it wrap up.

I would have closed out some positions, if it were available in real time, but I understand that the site can go down for maintenance and I may not get the chance.

39 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

Ok great. Multi-option markets are still resolved via command-line. @emre will resolve it to Hurricanes - YES, whenever he starts his day.

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 29 Jan

Hurricanes won. I am good. I only had hurricanes shares left so as long as it gets paid out it is good with me.

100 sats \ 10 replies \ @Coinsreporter 29 Jan

Hobart Hurricanes won. I've no other issue except that I couldn't sell my yes shares on Sydney Thunder and my last bet on Hobart Hurricanes isn't showing there?

Here's the invoice for that bet

lnbc1100n1pne8f57pp5tx499dmx259xx2eqycltxvlfxwvzzd9wnxk8s9k7wehw6227u5ksdyqg3jkzu3qvdhkjmnnwfjhqmmjw3jhytpqdd5kuerv0yszqurp0ys8g6rfwvsxjmnkda5kxefqw3hjqurvv93k2greda6hygrswfjkg6trw35k7m3qdahzq5rjv4j8j7ppcqzzsxqrrsssp5gyhg5mg5vln3r09lgj28wqa2rgvfkgw7wma6mz5577r0r0aw4pxq9qyyssqxfx8k97lgxmfmnkjwpcnum94sqgt4qpg6e9hjzlj0cattlslhm49qkctv48pnp6nxa0at33zdj80k4lyvjmsjqkgr8verhvj6x2k9dsp8t97sx

0 sats \ 9 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

Was your last bet for 110 sats? This is what your invoice says:

Do you remember how much share you couldn't sell on "Sydney Thunder"? I can ask @emre to lookup, but he's asleep now. He was up till 6AM his morning. I will issue refund directly to you. Please provide your LNAddress for easy refund.

100 sats \ 8 replies \ @Coinsreporter 29 Jan

Yes, it was for 110 Sats.

I wanted to sell all my shares on Sydney Thunder. I remember I had 13000 shares.

20 sats \ 7 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

13000 Ok great! Because of our fault you lost a trading opportunity, We'll refund 13k sats for that trade. + 110 sats = Total Refund: 13110 sats

Can you please share your ln-address or generate a invoice for 13110 sats in reply.

100 sats \ 6 replies \ @Coinsreporter 29 Jan

Thanks. It's so generous of you.

lnbc131100n1pnenwwypp5senafgyre7x7s7zv0tlgfsj6fcpj0lmmvjvwvm8t790akmyvlnksdqqcqzzsxqyz5vqsp5ekgt5ympskvcsfr7f25treeedypajm02fthucyawdr9r6gml2nvs9qxpqysgq8u7l6hulyjsc90xeyylufrvsy493w56vspynql0sfperlcuxcn53uccngud0ksujc56ptt7n23e5365z4svjsnmwnz7jfsjyhg9649qqfp7403

20 sats \ 5 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

lnbc131100n1pnenwwypp5senafgyre7x7s7zv0tlgfsj6fcpj0lmmvjvwvm8t790akmyvlnksdqqcqzzsxqyz5vqsp5ekgt5ympskvcsfr7f25treeedypajm02fthucyawdr9r6gml2nvs9qxpqysgq8u7l6hulyjsc90xeyylufrvsy493w56vspynql0sfperlcuxcn53uccngud0ksujc56ptt7n23e5365z4svjsnmwnz7jfsjyhg9649qqfp7403

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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

It must have been impacted during the attack, how much did you bet? I can send you the sats, and you can place your bets again?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 29 Jan

It wasn't the substantial amount, only 110 sats. Will you open the market as it is showing right now?

221 sats \ 13 replies \ @grayruby 28 Jan

woo hoo

Let's go.

141 sats \ 12 replies \ @grayruby 28 Jan

Why was @Undisciplined selling shares 3.5 hours before you posted this? Those should be reversed.

140 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Jan

Early bird gets the worm

140 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 28 Jan

You are quite the sportsman sneaking in while the site is being tested.

140 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Jan

I'm just helping them see if everything is working right. It's really quite noble if you think about it.

142 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 28 Jan

Great then you should donate all the sats to the rewards pool.

140 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Jan

Would if I could (well probably not), but I spent more than I made, so I can't and I shan't.

40 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer OP 28 Jan

We were testing and he showed up :)

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 28 Jan

Alright. I will let it slide. Next time block his ass.

120 sats \ 4 replies \ @Coinsreporter 29 Jan

Not Sure!!!

He has some partnership in the Predyx as well.

40 sats \ 3 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

Yeah, insider trading 🤣

120 sats \ 2 replies \ @Coinsreporter 29 Jan

Because we can't know I suspect you both are same 😜

40 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

There is a big possibility that I'm his clone 😜

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 29 Jan

Maybe you're twins seperated in a village fair in India. 🤔

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @suraz 29 Jan

Yeah! We're gonna bet again 😁

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @Shugard 29 Jan

Glad to see you guys being back on track!

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @denlillaapan 29 Jan

Hurray!!

Let's get betting, dudes

100 sats \ 7 replies \ @0xIlmari 29 Jan

I can't seem to figure out how to set up an order on the site. All that seems to be available to me is being a taker, but clearly there are orders in the book.

Also, is there an API? I'm not a gambler, I want to harvest gamblers.

0 sats \ 6 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

The limit orders have been disabled, its not 100% ready yet.

What you see in the orderbook are the spot-price orders.

Yes there are APIs, but there's no documentation yet. Also APIs are not yet authenticated with OAuth2.0 i.e no JWTs or Access Tokens. But you can use the APIs with cookie authentication and if you need to learn about each API calls, you can do so via debugging on browser console's network tab.

Or if you wait for few months, we'll make our APIs public via API Developer Portal with proper documentation along with sandbox environment.

100 sats \ 5 replies \ @0xIlmari 29 Jan

So it's really not an "orderbook". It's a "trade history". An order book are outstanding bid and ask limit orders, at varying price points. You don't have that.

But if that is so, who IS the other side of the trades I'm making? Who dictates the price? Predyx? That's like trading through a broker - you can't trust they're not taking an opposite trade somewhere else and screwing you over.

0 sats \ 4 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

Yes correct, trade history.

You can view the other sides on Share Holder tab, normally you're betting against other traders and sometimes liquidity_bot. User: liquidity_bot is managed by Predyx.

100 sats \ 3 replies \ @0xIlmari 29 Jan

Sorry, but that still doesn't explain how "shares" (which I understand to simply be "contracts" in regular exchange parlance) come into existence in the first place. For example, in the "will egg prices rise" bet, there are no holders for "No":

If I were to click "Buy No", who would sell me those? Who sets that particular price? Why is it different for different amount of shares?

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

We use Automated Market Maker(AMM) algorithm known as LMSR. Thus AMM sets the odds and dynamic pricing based on total shares sold and liquidity. The reason price increases for more share you purchase is due to the fact "more share purchase" = "more demand" = "higher price", LMSR mimics the traditional orderbook in an automated way.

If there are no traders on the other side, you're basically betting against market's initial liquidity or market creator's subsidy. In LMSR when a market is created, it needs to be funded by initial liquidity to bootstrap the market.

If I were to click "Buy No", who would sell me those? AMM sells you those shares and prices it based on the total market shares and liquidity.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @0xIlmari 29 Jan

Don't you think this should be put out somewhere in the documentation instead of coaxed out of you in here?

In an ordinary market, participants trade only with each other and no trade can happen unless someone puts up a limit order first and becomes a maker. Impact of a market order on price can be easily estimated by studying how deep it would penetrate the order book. In a prediction market, the price IS then the probability.

You instead decided on an opaque system where contracts can magically come into existence based on unknown rules and there is no price (and therefore probability) discovery.

If you want to attract traders and market makers (maybe you don't) instead of just gamblers, then what the platform does and how exactly it decides prices should be sufficiently documented so that anyone could reproduce the price estimations (I don't even see pricing requests in the API so it must be baked into your obfuscated JS).

And I don't mean the liquidity_bot. You can operate whatever bots on your own platform as long as they are equal participants to your customers. But what the platform itself is doing should be known.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 14h

Thanks for pointing this out! Our pricing is based on the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR), which dynamically adjusts prices based on demand. Here’s why we use LMSR instead of a traditional order book: 1. Transparency & Simplicity: LMSR eliminates the need for manual bids/offers, making it easier for users to participate without worrying about matching opposing trades. 2. Liquidity Assurance: Even in low-activity markets, LMSR guarantees liquidity by algorithmically setting prices, so there’s always a trade opportunity. 3. Efficient Pricing: Prices are directly tied to demand. As more shares are bought (e.g., “YES”), their price rises, and the opposing shares (e.g., “NO”) become cheaper, maintaining balance.

That said, we’re actively working on adding detailed documentation and transparent pricing formulas to help users better understand and even replicate these mechanics programmatically. Stay tuned for the API updates!

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100 sats \ 3 replies \ @cz 29 Jan

Is it some kind of stock market? How can I join?

10 sats \ 2 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

Yes its some kind of stock markets for future events. Technically its knows as Prediction Markets. You can join beta by visiting https://beta.predyx.com or sigining up for stable release wait-list here: https://predyx.com

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @cz 29 Jan

I'm hopping on the waitlist now. Ty!

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

Awesome!

200 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Jan

Hell yeah!

I checked in while I was eating lunch and you were back up.

The site was a little glitchy and there was one market I wasn't able to make transactions in, but it was nice getting in there and adjusting my portfolio.

27 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer OP 28 Jan

Please try again, I was having issue too on Premier League earlier, but it seem to be resolved now.

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Jan

Cool

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @WeAreAllSatoshi 29 Jan

Degenerate gamblers rejoice everywhere!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

🤣

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @TNStacker 29 Jan

Let's go!

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

Thanks!

100 sats \ 2 replies \ @dingding541 29 Jan

Glad to hear it mate, maybe you can create a market for 'when will someone attack us....again' 😭

15 sats \ 1 reply \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

Thanks! Not a bad idea! Its like chopping the same branch of the tree that you're sitting on ;)

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @dingding541 29 Jan

🤣🤣

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @emre 28 Jan

No need for doubt, doubt not! We are here, and will always come back stronger!

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 29 Jan

Thanks for all the hard work and sleepless nights @emre !

100 sats \ 7 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 28 Jan

As a newcomer to prediction markets, I'm curious to know if it's possible to exit a position before the market concludes.

21 sats \ 6 replies \ @mega_dreamer OP 28 Jan

Yes, you can exit the market any time before the market concludes. In other words, you can sell any time you wish to exit.

131 sats \ 5 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 28 Jan

That's great! It reminds me a lot of Betfair. It's like doing day trading on any event, which is really exciting. The best part is that you're betting against other users, not the platform itself. Is it also like that on Predyx?

124 sats \ 4 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Jan

It is a lot of fun, for people who like pouring over endless spreadsheets.

122 sats \ 3 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 28 Jan

I've never tried Predix. I imagine it has low liquidity, or am I mistaken?

127 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Jan

Yeah, they're still in beta, so there's not a ton of liquidity. Your transactions will significantly move the odds.

131 sats \ 1 reply \ @0xbitcoiner 28 Jan

I wish I had more time to look into this, because there seem to be plenty of arbitrage opportunities.

133 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 28 Jan

Yep. There's plenty of them laying around, just waiting for enough capital to smooth them out.