Personally, I think it's a lot of empty threats, and if they do happen, I'd guess the effects are going to be far less than standard media is reporting.
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112 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 31 Jan
I think the episode with Columbia is what we should expect, in general: rapid escalation until the other side caves.
We'll see if America has the bargaining power that Trump thinks we have.
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74 sats \ 1 reply \ @Aardvark OP 31 Jan
I think its going to be a lot of that. People caving because they think Trump will actually do it.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0xIlmari 31 Jan
Which means, he actually needs to do it a couple times.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @justin_shocknet 31 Jan
The same media seemingly has 0 concern over internal tariffs (income, capital gains, and dividend taxes) that punish production and strangle the economy
This is a war on the globalist banking cartel, and the country with the world reserve currency and largest economy wielding tariffs is like an arsenal of tactical nukes
Long popcorn.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Jon_Hodl 31 Jan
I expect price will rise and consumers will bear most of that burden.
Some of the expense will be eaten by the producers who are so reliant on exporting to the US that they will bend the knee and generate a smaller profit rather than lose their largest customer.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @0xIlmari 31 Jan
I think it's going to be a mix of:
- Using them as threat and never actually meaning to implement.
- Implementing them punitively for unrelated issues (the Mexico one seems to be a case of this, tarrifs for imigrants). These will be short to mid term and change based on international politics.
- Genuinely as a trade war weapon, to protect US businesses and rebuild the US industrial base.
I wonder though, is Trump aware of this simple chain:
Tarrifs > Reduced imports into US > Reduced US trade deficit > Less dollars exported abroad > Weakening of the "mighty Dollar" as world reserve currency
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