RBOA: Serie A, La Liga, Bundesliga, Premier League \ stacker news ~Stacker

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RBOA: Serie A, La Liga, Bundesliga, Premier League

521 sats \ 25 comments \ @Undisciplined 31 Jan Stacker_Sports

Here are today's picks using my proprietary betting strategy at Freebitcoin. For details about what Risk Balanced Odds Arbitrage is and why it works see #342765.

For a hypothetical 1k-ish wager on each match, distribute your sats as follows:

Outcome 1	Outcome 2	Outcome 3	Bet 1	Bet 2	Bet 3
Napoli	Udinese	Draw	688	125	222
Inter Milan	Fiorentina	Draw	667	133	217
Empoli	AC Milan	Draw	200	571	250
Como	Juventus	Draw	279	464	286
Sevilla	Barcelona	Draw	174	630	222
Real Sociedad	Espanyol	Draw	660	133	238
Real Madrid	Atletico Madrid	Draw	565	211	263
RB Leipzig	FC St Pauli	Draw	652	154	217
FC Bayern	Werder	Draw	875	53	100
Dortmund	VfB Stuttgart	Draw	458	313	263
Man City	Newcastle	Draw	588	213	222
Leicester	Arsenal	Draw	100	750	167
Everton	Liverpool	Draw	125	688	200
Brighton	Chelsea	Draw	323	421	267

Overall, I'm holding steady at about a 2.5% return with this approach.

I still haven't precisely identified where the threshold is, but it might be worth skipping any of these with a "time weight multiplier" lower than 90.

A note of caution about Freebitcoin: they recorded the wrong outcome for last week's Bills vs Ravens game and as of yet have not corrected it. I recall one other instance of something similar happening, so proceed with caution.

This RBOA strategy is largely immune from that problem, but be aware of it when just betting on one outcome.

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43 sats \ 18 replies \ @grayruby 31 Jan

I don't want to play all of these. Which ones do you suggest? I defer to you, you are a best selling author after all.

74 sats \ 15 replies \ @Coinsreporter 31 Jan

Didn't you listen he's holding only a 2.5% profit!!

I'd suggest you just predict winner of the games you assume will win.

45 sats \ 5 replies \ @grayruby 31 Jan

Last year I doubled my sats betting on NFL games and then proceeded to lose all my profit in the offseason trying to bet on soccer so 2.5% is good for me.

74 sats \ 4 replies \ @Coinsreporter 31 Jan

Well, I've a piece of advice. Bet on Man City in UEFA legue. They can win it.

44 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 31 Jan

I thought they were one of the favourites going into the league but have been performing poorly?

45 sats \ 2 replies \ @Coinsreporter 31 Jan

Again, this is a news from insider that City is going to the final of UEFA, so it will be a good bet on Prediction markets right now. They are a king of comebacks. If you look at their recent results, they're making their way back in.

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60 sats \ 8 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 31 Jan

Most of these payouts are within two weeks. I'm pretty sure a 2.5% biweekly return in bitcoin is better than almost any other financial strategy.

59 sats \ 7 replies \ @Coinsreporter 31 Jan

Considering we aren't putting huge amounts, we should aim for higher returns for it also requires some time.

40 sats \ 6 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 31 Jan

Fair. Alternatively, you could scale up the amount. I usually do a 3x or 4x of these, depending how much I have left in my balance. Nothings stopping you from going 10x.

The thing is, over the long-run, you're going to get the same return either way, because you can't control where the final odds settle. What RBOA does is give you those returns while minimizing/eliminating the risk of running out of funds.

60 sats \ 5 replies \ @Coinsreporter 31 Jan

Are you 100% sure that putting all sats according to this strategy can't attract loses?

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50 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined OP 31 Jan

I would do the ones furthest in the future, because they'll have the best multiplier. A few of these were two weeks out.

Also, they've got next month's bitcoin price up. I know you enjoy that one.

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 31 Jan

Thanks for the heads up. I do enjoy that one.

27 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 31 Jan

Here's my RBOA

Juventus/Como/Draw = 100/0/0
Bayern/werder/Draw = 100/0/80
City/NCastle/Draw = 100/0/80
Dortmund/Struttgar/Draw = 100/100/0
RealM/AtleticoM/Draw = 100/200/0
Napoli/Udinse/Draw = 100/0/0
Empoli/AC Milan/Draw = 0/100/0
Inter Milan/Fiorentina/Draw = 100/0/0
RB Leipzig/FC St Pauli/Draw = 100/100/0
Sevilla/Barcelona/Draw = 0/200/0
Real Sociedad/Espanyol/Draw = 100/100/0
Everton/Liverpool/Draw = 0/200/0
Brighton/Chelsea/Draw = 0/100/100
Leicester City/Arsenal/Draw = 0/200/0

30 sats \ 4 replies \ @Coinsreporter 31 Jan

I think you should leave some columns blank.

20 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 31 Jan

Why?

41 sats \ 2 replies \ @Coinsreporter 31 Jan

The last time I bet according to RBOA, I won almost nothing.

Blank = only for those which you're 99% certain won't be an outcome. For example in Bayern vs Werder, we know Werder not gonna win 99% so we can save a few sats.

20 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined OP 31 Jan

You can interpret those numbers as probabilities. According to the betting markets, Werner has about a 5% chance of winning.

In some of the Behavioral Economics literature, it looks like one of the main mistakes people make is underestimating small probabilities. Your welcome to apply this advice however you like, but I think it's important to hedge according to the available odds.

26 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 31 Jan

Got it. I'm just a bigger degenerate than you.

I want 1000 sats to be 100k by the morning any RBOA? ;)