‘If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment.’ - Ernest Rutherford, 1871 to 1937

There is a time to laugh, a time to sing, a time to dance, a time to be angry, a time to cry and a time to have confidence.

Music Artist to check out: Mohini Dey, incredible bass player

its good to get back to a little old school, lets get it goin!

At the time of this writing:

NYMEX NG: MAR 2025 $3.056/mmbtu

LNG JKM: JKMH5 $14.295/mmbtu

LNG TTF: TTEH5 $15.625/mmbtu

WTI: MAR 2025 $72.87/bbl

Bitcoin: 1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin

PJM RT LMP: $33.28/mWh

ERCOT RT LZ HOU LMP: $11.98/mWh

Long Island Zone K RT LMP: $117.56/mWh

MISO: $28.39/mWh

Weather

So far Jan 2025 has been the coldest winter in 25 years. HDD’s or Heating Degree Days in the US totaled around 1080 something for the month of JAN. Its has certainly been WAY colder over history and we just need to zoom out a bit over time. FEB 2025 is supposed to be warm. Summer 2025 is supposed to be slightly above average in temperature and in precipitation. With JAN 2025 being quite cold in the US, we had snow in Houston TX and also Savannah GA. Can confirm from some friends and they saw they never se’int the snow before. It snowed in Houston y’all, this is quite interesting. Since Natural Gas folks are trading MAR on the prompt month and natural gas is at that number above and if the weather man falls asleep, could see a calm summer? Shall I dare say? On the flip side also can confirm that the great state of North Dakota printed -20F in JAN 2025. Yes. That’s correct. Negative twenty degrees Fahrenheit. I still, to this day, dont get how people enjoy living in this type of weather.

tq50

Market Intel

It feels good to be back. I usually use this ‘market intel’ space to vent a little bit. I can say that there is a really big interest in growth with mergers and acquisitions in the energy world. One thing that is interesting is that this demand for electricity specifically for data centers may in fact be a huge hype. I believe I mentioned this to you my fellow readers. More marketers are coming to the market and the big marketers are getting stronger, larger, and stronger and larger. Whats interesting is what that could do to the overall marketplace for electricity and natural gas supply and how those supply entities will ultimately go back to a more vertically integrated approach aka monopolizing. Perhaps. Seeing the renewable folks get really interested in doing weird and kinda cool projects figuring out solutions for electricity generation. Everything from solar to fracking heat to spin turbines, literally everything. As you know nuclear energy generated into electricity is extremely valuable to modern life. Check this chart, let me know in the comments if you feel anything about the growth of uranium that is commercially supplier for nuclear reactors. U.S. uranium supply to commercial nuclear reactors

Electricity

Still to this day, the forward price for electricity in multiple markets across the US and Canada is significantly higher than the ‘as generated’ price for electricity. There are a lot of reasons as to why this is happening and to know every reason you would need to break it down by company and how suppliers are interpreting the market. ERCOT as an example for a 40-45% load factor customer type, total electricity supply price with all components added is approximately $60/mWh including the shape, congestion, ERCOT settlement fees, securitization fees, ancillaries, losses and everything else (theres more). PJM pricing has significantly decreased over the past 4 years, but again, no where close to 2020 prints. Just received some intel that the Base Residual Auction for PJM capacity market will take place and settle 3/11/2025 mark it down folks. I do expect a lot of normalcy in price this time around considering there are a lot of lobbyists including the PA state governor really making sure folks know how serious the 2025-2026 settlement was to electricity consumers. Canadian markets are really becoming interesting as the market reform happening there is causing higher pricing due to complicated unknowns. A lot of changes coming and my concern is that regulatory change will be more aggressive in creating price volatility for electricity and…...

Natural Gas

JAN 2025 NYMEX settled at $3.51/mmbtu. The last time we saw natural gas settle for the month higher than$3.50/mmbtu was JAN 2023 and that settlement was $4.74/mmbtu. Dry production settled at 103.5 BCF/day for the week ending 1/23-1/29. Production over 100 BCF has been a consistent number nationally for the lower 48 in natural gas production. Demand for natural gas is up over last years demand but down week over week. JAN 2025 put a lot of pressure on natural gas demand given the volatile cold snaps with the demand coming from the power sector and the residential/commercial sector. Having the cold winter with stronger demand and now a weak FEB is causing demand for natural gas to reduce. Dare I say the shoulder could be sooner than expected? We have more natural gas in storage than we have had over the 5 year average and, still keep in mind, the JAN 2025 weather. However week ending 1/24 was the 4th largest withdraw on record with a withdraw of 321 BCF. Simply put we just have a lot of natural gas in the ground, still. Declining natural gas rigs over last year by 16% however 472 oil rigs currently.

LNG

Unfortunately not much to report here other than we are seeing feedgas demand output be in that ~14 BCF/day consistently now. I do believe there are some more LNG delivery locations coming alive but I will report back on some more detail there.

Conclusion

Take one day at a time. Try to change the world that you live in to make it better. Dont try to define better because anything can get worse. Live life to the fullest. Hope you enjoyed the recent Info Flow. Please comment and share.

Peace and Love- Bass

ALL views and opinions are my own. All data/research comprised can simply be looked up by any search engine.

for full version with charts check substack