Perplexed as to why.
Fees are in the dumpster so it's never been cheaper to move your bitcoin on the base layer.
Hashrate is looking like we'll have an increase in difficulty (at least for now, definitely subject to change) so that tells me there's a lot of labor out there working on mining that next block.
All the pieces are there for some folks to start moving their coins, but they just... stack and stack. Not a coin moving here, there, anywhere.
So why doesn't the demand to move on layer 1 pick up? Is every single bitcoiner out there just totally crushing it, uber orange-pilled and convinced of the trajectory? Nobody has UTXOs to consolidate, everybody's sats are perfectly sorted in the proper wallets?
This seems WILD.
The real reason is the simple one: because it just isn't used that much.
The demand for baselayer Bitcoin usage/blockspace is just low.
What's left after all that? A few stackers to cold wallets. A few channel openings. Some people/merchants that haven't updated their Bitcoin setup since 2013.
I still go to BTC Map now and again hoping to see a new shop or business around my area accepting bitcoin.
I still have never seen a new addition. We are much more unique than we recognize, in the larger scheme.
In 'my area' there aren't any places accepting Bitcoin. There are a few places in big cities... but they're not really for things that I actually need. 'pest control', 'chiropractor', 'home design' small family medical offices things like.
I would love a coffee shop it would be awesome
Lightning is supposed to allow ONE person to open a lightning channel and leave it open for months if not years... resulting in ONE maybe TWO on-chain transactions and thousands of Lightning transactions for that individual.
This keeps blocksizes relatively small, keeps fees sustainable for miners, and results in Lightning transactions which are instant, cheap, and sustainable for as many people as possible.
Lightning works, and in my experience does a great job increasing the 'privacy' of Bitcoin while making transactions cheap and instantaneous.
So if there is so little 'merchant adoption' and so little "onchain activity" to *open those Lightning channels...
What is the reason for this?
Bitcoiners, for some reason, cannot honestly acknowledge to themselves that 2 things are probably true:
and
Yes maybe in Lugano, Switzerland (where Italians go on vacation) or maybe a few places in El Salvador maybe but that's it.
Bitcoin is a great asset and has a bright future, but the amount of "adoption" due to the lack of education is really shocking.
Its quiet before the storm hits...
Will fiat go up or down relative to Bitcoin? No idea, although logically it should crash...
But then the universe it not always rational!
The 'exchange rate' of Bitcoin is not the important thing.
The important thing is the efficiency, privacy, safety, and continuity with which Bitcoin is actually used in the real economy for better goods and services.
Bitcoin's gains priced in fiat isn't necessarily the asset becoming more valuable (though it is).... it's also the currency you're measuring it in being debased.
Short term will fluctuate. Long term is a foregone conclusion. 🙇🏻♂️
Most people going custodial both in base layer and layers above?
People "going custodial" are idiots.
If they don't have a choice, like institutions or maybe businesses that's one thing.
But individuals of a 'moderate' age (the elderly should not hold their own keys IMO) should be doing everything they can to learn about Bitcoin, study it, and stack sats to employ in future consumption.
Even the "layers above" don't need custodial usage. There are numerous GREAT non-custodial Lightning wallets Zeus, Phoenix, Blockstream Green, Blixt, Blizt using channels you choose...
Or an LSP to give you a channel to use for a small fee and they do a great job.
Tons of liquidity, LN addresses to receive to (like I use here on Stacker News) PLUS increased privacy as opposed to on-chain with a lot of options.
So where is everyone?
There are tons of exciting things going on with Bitcoin... so I don't really understand the world's inattention to it outside of CNBC-number-goes-up-number-goes-down which isn't really what Bitcoin is about.
Been asking myself that question too
#868736