A few weeks back, I discussed gold and what the current macro landscape has in store for the yellow pre-digital bitcoin-lookalike (#878667).
On Monday, gold hit a new ATH, so clearly something is in the works.
John Authers at Bloomberg informs us as much, though he's not sure what that message is:
It’s never safe to ignore the gold price. The mere fact that the “barbarous relic” creates no income stream and eludes valuation by any normal metric makes its behavior the more meaningful. Gold is in a bull market, topping $2,900 per ounce for the first time Monday, and yet it’s attracted little attention. A gold price this extreme generally tells us something. But what?
Even in CPI-adjusted term, gold is now higher than at its peak in the 1970s: (and it's not a dollar story, since the DXY is close to its highest too)
"That tends to suggest that all isn’t as well with the dollar as appears."
Uh-hu, no shit. (Just less dirty than all the other fiat currency shirts.)
Could be geopolitical fears, could be India and China stacking like crazy:
The demand from large emerging world central banks, and from consumers in the growing middle class, is certainly a factor. The reserves held by China and particularly India have surged in recent years.
Or the Trump insecurity play, with some non-zero probability of a revaluation of the U.S. massive gold reserve:
Tariffs and the desire to protect from the likely coming confusion in foreign exchange markets are also doubtless a factor, while it’s also possible that the US administration is hoping to revalue its gold holding, currently on the books at only $42 per ounce, in a move that would give it more fiscal leeway.
Who knows. But interesting regardless. And more to our purposes: why in the world is bitcoin not following...?
non-paywalled here: https://newsletterhunt.com/emails/156018