What are your main concerns when it comes to Bitcoin failing ? It is well known that Bitcoin has reached high levels of robustness, but still there is room for vector attacks.
What are your thoughts?
Short of governments going door to door beating every bitcoiner with a billy club to hand it over, I can't think of much that I'd be worried about
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@pillar has touched on this, but I want to go into a little detail. Bitcoin can be technologically successful, but what matters is that it is socially successful. Money is as much social as it is economic or technological.
What follows is my opinion on how we get that adoption. Unfortunately, I think that many Bitcoiners are naïve on what is required to make social change.
This is a very unpopular opinion, but the most important factor in doing this is having elites that like Bitcoin. Elites is a very loaded word, especially in the Bitcoin community. So when you see me talking about elites, don't think "exploiter", "parasite", or "oppressor". Elites can be all those things, but that's not what it means to be an elite. Elites are simply the people capable of making the exception. The people who are really in charge. They can be good or evil.
We are a naturally hierarchical species. Even if we got an completely anarchist society, there will be a small group of people that the masses will follow, voluntarily or otherwise.
No social or political revolution exists without a group of elites behind it. Revolutions are simply the changing of the old guard with the new, or convincing the old guard that your ideas are better. The former seems to happen more often than the later. You obviously need the support of the people to do this. The people are necessary, but not sufficient.
Education and spreading the word is important. However, we won't see real progress in Bitcoin adoption until:
  1. The old elites are brought to our side, and/or
  2. New elite Bitcoiners are created AND replace the old elites
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This is not wrong but it assumes that society is a fixed thing within a fixed geographical boundary.
However, there might be also nomadic elites and virtual elites, of whom Satoshi is or was the brightest. These elites do not directly compete with the old elites for the same space.
This means that for some time the old local elites might be satisfied with being in control of their local societies while the new elites are forming online.
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Very true that elites sometimes take a portion of the populace with them and separate from the old ones. That's what happened with the American Revolution. But in almost all cases the old elites aren't too happy when this happens. I think that its definitely the case that the elites we have now. They may not compete for the same space, but they definitely compete for the same people.
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In the American Revolution both the old and the new elites were projecting their power onto the same thing (a piece of land) using the same method (fielding armies). The present conflict is more like replacing monarchy with democracy: the old elites are powerful because they command the army and the police, but the new elites are powerful because they are popular with the voters - and as the result the old elites are outclassed and crushed.
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Great point. What I meant to point out in my previous comment was that the new nomadic/virtual elites are competing with the old elites for people, not land. Our current leaders are definitely the type to try and get into everyone's business instead of leaving people alone. So you're correct in making that distinction.
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People not adopting.
Let's not underestimate this. If we don't manage to seduce the mainstream population, we will fail. I disagree with many on the idea that Bitcoin has already won.
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Bitcoin is far away from winning.
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Regulatory capture and paper trading/derivatives. Look at the gold chart for an example, the paper market has entirely ruined price discovery and my fear is the same could happen to Bitcoin.
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Custody
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