The general idea of geopolitical Bitcoin mining game theory is that if a country does decide to ban mining, they will lose.

3/ We clearly saw this occur with China in 2021 when mining was banned.

As a result, capital in the form of ASICs and Bitcoin escaped Mainland China and that capital was attracted into other countries around the world.

4/ Other countries benefited from lower network mining difficulty (due to machines turning off) and higher mining profits.